Presidential Campaign

Presidential Campaign

A presidential print debate could cut through the noise

It will not be long before the 2016 presidential campaign process is at the top of the national agenda.  We have all witnessed the cacophony of information, misinformation and noise that comes at us during these chaotic electoral seasons....

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Secret spending in 2012 election reinforces need for DISCLOSE Act

On the first day of the 113th Congress, Rep. Chris Van Hollen reintroduced the DISCLOSE Act, a bill aimed at shining a bright light on who is spending in our federal elections. This marks the third time the DISCLOSE Act has been introduced in Congress. The legislation would bring much-needed transparency to our federal elections, allowing voters to be better informed, and helping guard against improper relationships between political spenders and elected officials.

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$3.3 billion: The cost of advertising in next presidential race

“A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” 

That famous quote is attributed to my late senator from Illinois, Everett Dirksen. Dirksen wasn’t talking about campaign spending, but the point is the same. Republicans and Democrats reached record levels this year, each spending a billion dollars on political advertising. Yes, that’s real money, and the cost is only going up.

We estimate that the next presidential race is going to cost somewhere in the $3 billion range. In 2020, advertising could reach as much as $5 billion. 

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Paul Ryan's 'compassionate conservatism'

Tuesday was supposed to be the night Paul Ryan ended his brief association with Mitt Romney. Speaking at the Kemp Foundation dinner in his first major address since the Romney-Ryan ticket bombed on Election Day, Ryan was going to show that he was not Romney, clueless rich guy and adversary of the welfare state. He achieved that in substance, but it took political shifting of the kind his running mate embodied to do so.

Ryan broke new ground for himself by calling for a stronger safety net. Instead of emphasizing the middle class, as Marco Rubio did in his address there, he focused on the poor. He mentioned the word “poverty” 15 times in his 20-minute address. There may not have been a more appropriate place to do it than at a dinner in Jack Kemp’s honor. But it begs the question, where is Paul Ryan going now?

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Minority demographic changes in Georgia could spell trouble for GOP

When it comes to the long-term future of the Republican Party in Georgia, the most important data from this cycle may not have come on Election Day, but rather from a regional survey the week before.
 
An October 26th poll showed Mitt Romney leading President Obama by an overall margin of 53-42 percent in the state. Of course, Romney went on to carry Georgia by a rough margin of 53-45, improving on John McCain’s statewide totals from 2008, which briefly saw the Obama team make a play in the Peach State.

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