Presidential Campaign

“A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” 

That famous quote is attributed to my late senator from Illinois, Everett Dirksen. Dirksen wasn’t talking about campaign spending, but the point is the same. Republicans and Democrats reached record levels this year, each spending a billion dollars on political advertising. Yes, that’s real money, and the cost is only going up.

We estimate that the next presidential race is going to cost somewhere in the $3 billion range. In 2020, advertising could reach as much as $5 billion. 

Tuesday was supposed to be the night Paul Ryan ended his brief association with Mitt Romney. Speaking at the Kemp Foundation dinner in his first major address since the Romney-Ryan ticket bombed on Election Day, Ryan was going to show that he was not Romney, clueless rich guy and adversary of the welfare state. He achieved that in substance, but it took political shifting of the kind his running mate embodied to do so.

Ryan broke new ground for himself by calling for a stronger safety net. Instead of emphasizing the middle class, as Marco Rubio did in his address there, he focused on the poor. He mentioned the word “poverty” 15 times in his 20-minute address. There may not have been a more appropriate place to do it than at a dinner in Jack Kemp’s honor. But it begs the question, where is Paul Ryan going now?


During the recent campaign, President Obama dismissed the idea of North American energy independence by 2020, saying “you can’t drill your way out of this.” He was wrong.

The results of this election made one thing clear about the GOP and the era of digital politicking: we are doing it wrong.
 
It is not that Conservatives are not engaged online (in fact the opposite is true), or that the Right is not using the best tools or techniques. It is fundamentally that Conservatives do not have the correct view of the role of digital politics in campaigns.
 
After the ground-breaking uses of technology in Howard Dean’s presidential campaign and the game-changing use of the internet by Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, it became clear to many on the Right that the era of digital politics was here to stay. And while the Right has by-in-large embraced the digital arena, it is not enough to just engage in social networks, buy digital ads, send emails and engage in mobile campaigning.

Will the revenge of the Rockefeller Republicans help President Obama a second time – this time with his political dilemma regarding appointing Susan Rice as Secretary of State?

While largely unchronicled, in the closing days of the campaign, Rockefeller Republicans rebuffing Romney, helped President Obama nail down his re-election.  The President had reason to be concerned about Romney’s national edge amongst Independents and whether he would get enough votes from moderate independents from the suburbs.  In the end, Rockefeller Republicans helped Obama forge his 51-47 percent victory.

When it comes to the long-term future of the Republican Party in Georgia, the most important data from this cycle may not have come on Election Day, but rather from a regional survey the week before.
 
An October 26th poll showed Mitt Romney leading President Obama by an overall margin of 53-42 percent in the state. Of course, Romney went on to carry Georgia by a rough margin of 53-45, improving on John McCain’s statewide totals from 2008, which briefly saw the Obama team make a play in the Peach State.

As someone who has spent years trying to advance the Republican cause, I have experienced the tremendous highs associated with winning majorities and the extreme lows associated with campaigns that fall short.

Recent cycles for Republicans have been defined by heart ache and missed opportunities, which have left many asking about the pathway forward. I believe to win majority status in American politics, Republicans must present themselves as the party of big ideas, opportunity, and yes, openness.

To state the obvious, winning higher office is extremely difficult. As well it should be. But working hard is not enough. We must work smart. For instance, there are common elements in the messages winning candidates communicate to voters and they tend to project confidence, clarity and constructiveness.

I was in New Hampshire on Election Day 2012, when early reports of high turnout fostered optimism among Republicans who had bought into the conventional wisdom that Democrats, particularly the low-information voters that surged for Obama in 2008, simply would not be motivated to turn out this time. Then it became clear that the longest lines were at the same-day registration tables, creating confusion in Republican war rooms and foreshadowing the grim night ahead for the GOP.

The complications of Hurricane Sandy should prompt state and federal governments to adopt contingency plans for general elections.

Officially, the Atlantic Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30. Every two years, Election Day occurs on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November and therefore takes place during hurricane season. Recent events have demonstrated how unpredictable and devastating weather patterns can be and will be in the future.

The presidential election is receding in the rear view mirror, but its lessons should stay with us. Just weeks ago, both sides agreed that the race would be won by the candidate who convinced voters that he would do a better job for the middle class and achieve growth and opportunity for all.

President Obama succeeded – overcoming the lingering impact of the Bush recession -- because voters rejected Mitt Romney’s recycled trickle-down policies of tax cuts for the rich and austerity for the rest of us.