Presidential Campaign

Once again, Florida matters in the 2012 presidential election. That fateful 2000 presidential election put Florida in the nation’s crosshairs because Florida’s popular vote made the difference as to who would be elected. Without Florida, neither candidate would reach the needed 270 Electoral Vote threshold, so the fight over who won the popular vote in Florida mattered a great deal.  

In the first debate of the quadrennial presidential debate season, it was like the 2010 mid-terms all over again. Not that there were presidential debates in 2010. It's just that President Obama seemed to revert to his 'pre-shellacking' public speaking form: a bit disengaged, a tad too dismissive and, dare we say it 'professorial'? 

We’re just weeks away from the 2012 election, and American pundits and politicians are now especially given to discussing different types of American voters: “Soccer moms,” “retirees,” “the white working class.”



Each group of voters is confidently parsed and counted, assigned to one ledger or another. Working-class whites, for instance, are consistently identified with conservative politics and the Tea Party by both those on the left and the right.
 


Last month at the Democratic National Convention, the president outlined a framework of how he plans to put America back on a path to economic recovery and sustained growth. To realize the specifics of his vision, there are a number of pillars he must address, and one of the biggest issues he will need to put to rest is the widespread uncertainty shared by businesses large and small. He has the opportunity at the first presidential debate tonight in Denver, Colorado to talk directly to voters on this important topic. 



Despite a concerted effort by some to dismiss ‘business uncertainty’ as a myth, it’s become undeniable that lack of predictability around regulations and taxes is a real road block to investment and a barrier to growth. 



In tonight’s first presidential debate, Governor Romney and President Obama will spend 15 minutes discussing healthcare. This is a perilous topic for both, but whoever wins this debate within the debate will take a big step to winning on November 6th.
 
The Affordable Care Act, or ObamaCare as both candidates now call it, will be center stage. The president will offer his standard defense, saying it helps middle-class families by making insurance more affordable and more secure.
 
But the president knows a full-throated defense will not work. A majority of Americans have consistently supported repeal since day one.

In 2008, then-Senator Barak Obama ran as a self-proclaimed candidate of change. A mantra of ‘hope’ and promise of fresh leadership in Washington was understandably appealing for voters hungry for a new direction. His inspiring words gave Americans reason to believe that a new political era was about to emerge based on sober analysis and mutual cooperation.
 
Sadly, the change never came. Out of the gate, Mr. Obama approved a stimulus bill written by Congressional Democratic leaders that lacked coherent focus and bipartisan support. He then signed into law a massive healthcare reform cobbled together behind closed doors that was ironically named the ‘Affordable Care Act’. His attempt to mend foreign relationships has strained our dealings with Russia, Poland and Israel. All the while, his administration takes credit for new domestic oil production and free trade agreements he played no part in brokering. 

With the national political spotlight on Colorado as a battleground state this election year, people around the country want to know what will be most important to Coloradans when they step into the voting booth. The answer is that Coloradans want the economy to turn around, they want house values to come back, and they want jobs.

The unemployment rate has gone up in my congressional district, the Colorado Springs area, for the fifth straight month in a row, to 9.7 percent. Colorado now has higher unemployment than the rest of the country for the first time in nearly seven years. Automatic cuts in defense spending scheduled to take effect in January could trigger a wave of layoffs among local defense contractors, creating tremendous uncertainty in some parts of Colorado, such as my congressional district which has five major military installations.

According to conventional wisdom, only a few “swing” or “battleground” states matter in presidential elections. Candidates take this idea of swing-state determinism seriously — this year, Mitt Romney and President Obama are devoting the bulk of their advertising and organizing to about eight to 10 battleground states. According to Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group report, as of late September, spending in each of the eight leading battleground states is already up by 140 percent or more as compared to 2008.

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama do not agree about much, but one thing they do have in common is the belief that their face-to-face debates, beginning Wednesday night0, could change the tone of the campaign, produce new reasons for voters to support or reject their candidacies and ultimately have some real impact on the final result. That’s as it should be. Presidential debates have now become an institutionalized part of the fall general election campaign.

As Governor Mitt Romney completes his final planning for the first debate, his aides quietly plan for an electoral victory. The so-called “Readiness Project” mirrors many of the same activities that began during the 1960 pre-election transition of President John Kennedy. It was the Kennedy team -- lead mainly by Clark Clifford with help from the Brookings Institution -- that initiated the optimistic practice of forming agency review teams, early vetting potential appointees, and establishing a nascent policy agenda.

Mike Leavitt, the former Governor of Utah, Secretary of Health and Human Services, and current Romney’s transition chief, has studied his history and has a well-staffed pre-election team encamped on C Street, planning for the day after the election.