Presidential Campaign

Florida has a population of more than 19 million people. Our residents have lived in the state for generations, they came to Florida from other states to start their lives or to enjoy their retirement, and many have come from other countries for economic and political reasons to pursue the American dream.  We have Southerners in the North, transplanted Northerners in the South and hardworking people throughout the state, trying to raise their families and live their lives as best and as successfully as they can.
 
Florida’s demographic breakdown closely mirrors that of the United States as a whole, making the Sunshine State a populous and important bellwether in any national election. As Florida goes, so goes the country — not only because of a plethora of electoral votes, but because as a large and diverse state, we capture the pulse of the nation.

Maybe the Obama campaign needs to bring Bill Clinton back for another lesson in Arithmetic. When Steve Croft on CBS’s 60 Minutes confronted President Obama Sunday a week ago about an unemployment rate of more than eight percent, he got a stumbling response.     

Suppose that Team Obama instead had prepared him with the right answer, “You know, Steve, that in the 12 months leading into my inauguration, unemployment went up every month, a total of 59.2 percent. From a 4.9 percent rate at the end of January 2008, it increased 59.2 percent a year later, to 7.8. With that momentum, it went up monthly, to 10 percent in October of my first year. Since then it’s dropped to 8.2 percent, an 18 percent decline. Get your fact-checker to Google “U.S. Unemployment“ at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

The first presidential debate tomorrow (October 3) will almost surely include a question about appointing judges. Barack Obama’s answer will be fairly mundane. The president will likely stand on his appointment of Supreme Court Justices Kagan and Sotomayor and repeat his line about picking nominees with empathy for women and ordinary folks. But for Mitt Romney, whose record on federal judicial appointments is yet to be written, the judges question provides an opportunity for a memorable answer – one that can win him the votes of conservatives, independents and libertarians.

We have seen a lot of polls of the middle class in the last three years, including one that Allstate, the company I work for, recently fielded. Indeed, Allstate, under the banner of the Heartland Monitor series, has polled well over 15,000 average Americans in the last three years.

When we took our first poll in March of 2009 things were very grim. More than eight million people had just lost their jobs; the Dow had dropped from 14,000 in 2007 to 6,600; banks were shedding toxic assets in excess of a trillion dollars; and, people’s homes were shedding equity at an even greater rate.

Since we are a company made up of thousands of agency owners and employees and 16 million customers, almost all of whom self-identify as middle class, and since our mission is to protect them from life’s uncertainties and to prepare them for the future, standing on the sidelines was not an option for us. We wanted to both know what was happening to them and help give them a voice.

Florida will play a key role in what will probably be one of the most important elections in our nation’s history. At stake is the presidency, control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, the Florida state legislature, key amendments to Florida’s constitution, numerous judicial contests and many local offices.

As we are now the third largest state in the nation, all eyes will be on us as we vote in this election. Our state has now over 11 million registered voters and I know that we have the commitment to excellence that sets us apart from others. Florida is by far the most important of the battleground states having the largest number of electoral votes – 29. It also now has one of the largest congressional delegations at 27 members including two new districts that which will be filled in this election for the first time.

You hear the axiom all the time: as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. But it’s an axiom for a reason — because it’s true. It is rare that the path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue has not wound through the buckeye battleground. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio and only twice since 1896 has a Democrat become president without doing so. 2012 will be no different as Ohio’s 18 electoral votes are a must-win for both campaigns. Electoral urgency is demonstrated by the fact that Ohio is a popular place to come during an election year — and during other years as well.

The candidates and their surrogates visit places like Maumee and Beallsville, Toledo and Sandusky, Mansfield and Parma, not to price out real estate or scout out vacation spots but to shop for votes. In 2012, President Barack Obama has traveled to Ohio 11 times already (with many more trips to come), second only to Virginia which is just a short jaunt across the Potomac River from the White House. And just this past week, President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney crisscrossed the state holding dueling campaign rallies. But why is Ohio so very popular to the occupants and aspirants of the White House?

This year, Mitt Romney is trying to make history — of a sort. The last victorious presidential candidate who failed to carry his political home state was Woodrow Wilson in 1916, nearly a century ago. But if Romney prevails in the electoral college this November, he will need to do so without the support of Massachusetts, the state he served as governor for four years and the site of his national campaign headquarters. Public opinion surveys of Bay State voters reveal a consistently wide lead for Barack Obama despite the favorite-son status of his Republican opponent, and both sides openly acknowledge that the outcome is not in doubt. Boston-area residents are being subjected this fall to a steady stream of media advertising on behalf of both candidates, but only because our neighbors to the north in the more competitive state of New Hampshire tend to watch our television stations—and thus are the true target audience for the campaigns’ dueling ad blitzes.

The last time Wisconsinites had a chance to vote for one of their own in a presidential contest the year was 1924 and the candidate was the progressive firebrand Fightin’ Bob LaFollette. In that year, the Badger state resisted the national Coolidge landslide and instead gave the nod to its favorite son, a testament to the power of homegrown loyalty in presidential voting. In choosing Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney was, no doubt, hoping to cultivate a similar degree of loyalty in a critical swing state. Despite this, it is unlikely that the selection of Ryan will provide the needed shot in the arm for the Romney campaign in Wisconsin.

President Obama and his allies continue to repeat attacks on Gov. Mitt Romney and his running mate Rep. Paul Ryan that were long ago discredited as completely false. That Republicans want to “end Medicare as we know it” is a popular line from the Democrats, but there’s nothing in the Romney-Ryan plan that ends Medicare as anyone has known it. Indeed, the whole point of the Romney-Ryan reform is to preserve Medicare for future generations. We are also told that the Republican plan would force seniors to pay $6,400 more per year for their care. This too is false. The Romney-Ryan plan guarantees that every senior will have the choice of at least two plans which will cost no more than current Medicare.

It has been a tumultuous couple of years in Wisconsin politics. Starting with the election of Scott Walker and his elimination of public worker collective bargaining, Wisconsin has been deeply — and very evenly — divided. Through recall, the Democrats managed to take back control of the state senate (a significant but largely symbolic victory, given that the legislative session had already ended and much of the Walker agenda had already been enacted), but they failed in winning back the governor’s seat. Whether this is because people are uncomfortable with the concept of the recall, as some have said, or they are supportive of Scott Walker’s policies, as others have said, I don’t think this tell us much of anything about what Wisconsin will do in November. In addition, I doubt Wisconsin will provide the deciding Electoral College vote for the upcoming election. Look to larger states for that—Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania.