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Analysts warn new North Korean leader might want to show muscle
As he replaces his late father Kim Jong Il, new North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might escalate military tensions in the Korean Peninsula in order to establish his credibility, foreign policy analysts warned Monday.
Paul Stares, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said potential missile tests and provocations against South Korea would be designed to enhance Kim Jong Un’s image as a strong leader in the minds of other countries as well as potential rivals within North Korea.
“There is always the possibility, to burnish the credentials of a strong leader, that they may orchestrate further provocations against South Korea,” Stares said on a conference call with reporters Monday.
Kim Jong Un, who was officially appointed successor to his father last year, is in his late twenties, and many are unsure how strongly he can keep a grip on power in North Korea.
Kim Jong Il’s death has thrown the region into uncertainty, and tensions were escalated Monday as the North Koreans launched a short-range missile test. They said it was unrelated to the former leader’s death.
Scott Snyder, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who focuses on Korea, said that little is known about Kim Jong Un, who went to boarding school in Switzerland.
“We really have a very limited knowledge base with regard to Kim Jong Un’s ideas or thoughts, or the possibly intended direction that he would take North Korea,” Snyder said.
Kim Jong Un will be dealing with people in the party and military who have been around much longer, Snyder said. “Since he’s young, I think the presumption is he’s going to be bound to the elites and to the leadership and have less capability to go off in his own direction.”
