Oil likely to reach Miami, Florida Keys, government study finds

South Florida will likely see tar balls reach its shores by August, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA projections of the 120-day impact of the the BP-Deepwater Horizon oil spill found that there's a 61 to 80 percent chance the oil will reach Miami, Fort Lauderdale and the Florida Keys.

"Any oil reaching this area would have spent considerable time degrading and dispersing and would be in the form of scattered tar balls and not a large surface slick of oil," the study said.

It's unlikely that the oil will affect Texas, western Florida and East Coast shorelines, the study found. But it's a near certainty -- 81 to 100 percent -- that the oil will continue to impact the area from the Mississippi River Delta to the Florida panhandle.

The report, released Friday, runs 500 different scenarios through its oil flow model. It assumes that oil leaks into the Gulf at a rate of 33,000 barrels per day. That rate was calculated by taking the 60,000 barrels estimated to be leaking out every day and subtracting the amount believed to be captured by BP's "Top Hat" process.

“This NOAA model shows where oil may be likely to travel, thereby giving coastal states and communities information about potential threats of shoreline impacts," said Jane Lubchenco, an NOAA administrator and undersecretary for Commerce for oceans and atmosphere.