EIA: GHG emissions will begin to grow, but will be tempered by various policies

By Andrew Restuccia - 12/16/10 12:16 PM ET

New data from the Energy Information Administration — the statistical arm of the Department of Energy — indicate that greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. energy consumption will begin to slowly increase during the next two decades, following two consecutive years of decline.

But the increase will be gradual, slowed by a number of state and federal policies aimed at reducing emissions growth. The data say the U.S. won’t reach 2005 greenhouse gas emission levels — an all-time high point — until 2027. But from 2027 to 2035, emissions will rise an additional 5 percent.

And the U.S. economy is expected to become less carbon-intensive from 2009-2035. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by 42 percent per dollar of GDP, EIA says.

The numbers are included in EIA’s early release of data to be included in its Annual Energy Outlook 2011. The projections are based on the assumption that there will be no major changes in U.S. climate policy during the time period in question.

Overall, emissions will increase by 0.2 percent per year between 2005 and 2035. But per capita emissions will actually fall by 0.8 percent per year during that same period, a result of state and federal policies that encourage energy efficiency, renewable energy use and fuel efficiency.

Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are largely are largely dependent on increases in demand for electricity. While electricity demand decreased during the last two years, a result of the economic downturn, it is expected to increase again beginning in 2012, according to the EIA data.

“[B]ut the growth is tempered by a variety of regulatory and socioeconomic factors, including appliance and building efficiency standards, higher energy prices, shifts in housing growth, and the continued transition to a more service-oriented economy,” EIA says.

When it comes to transportation emissions, EIA predicts a similar slow in growth. “Growth in CO2 emissions from transportation activity also slows in comparison with the recent pre-recession experience, as Federal CAFE standards increase the efficiency of the vehicle fleet, employment recovers slowly, and higher fuel prices moderate growth in travel,” EIA says.