Energy agency trims summer gas price forecast slightly

The federal Energy Information Administration (EIA) has shaved a few cents off its estimates for average gasoline prices this summer.

Prices will average far more than they did last summer, but the agency’s latest short-term outlook cuts this year’s estimate slightly.

“The forecast regular-grade motor gasoline retail price averages $3.81 per gallon during this summer's driving season (from April 1 through September 30), up from $2.76 per gallon last summer, but 5 cents per gallon lower than last month's Outlook.  The forecast U.S. monthly average regular gasoline price during the summer peaks in June at $3.88 per gallon,” states EIA, which is the Energy Department’s independent statistical arm.

Oil prices backed off their recent surge earlier this month and then rebounded a bit. The agency predicts continued strain on oil prices as a result of growing global demand. From their monthly outlook released Tuesday:

During the first week of May WTI crude oil prices fell by nearly $17 per barrel to $97 per barrel, along with a broad set of commodities, and then rebounded by almost $6 per barrel yesterday.  However, EIA still expects oil markets to tighten through 2012 given projected world oil demand growth and slowing growth in supply from countries that are not members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).  Projected WTI spot prices average $103 per barrel in 2011 and $107 per barrel in 2012, reductions of about $4 and $6 per barrel respectively from last month's Outlook.