Little chance for Copenhagen deal on near-term emissions — CERA

The consulting firm Cambridge Energy Research Associates argues in a new report that a “grand bargain” on 2020 emissions targets is unlikely at next month’s climate talks in Copenhagen.
 
“A number of factors point to difficulties in achieving a breakthrough on short-term emissions targets at Copenhagen,” CERA analysts say in a primer on the international talks.

“The current economic crisis makes costly abatement strategies much more difficult to sell politically,” it states, adding that many “fault lines” between developed and developing nations remain. It cites other barriers as well, including the absence of a final U.S. emissions law.

But the paper says the absence of consensus on “negotiating building blocks” has not diminished what it calls a growing recognition that “business-as-usual is not an option anywhere in the world.”
 
Negotiators in recent weeks have downgraded the goal for the meeting, now pointing to a political according coming out of the talks while work on a final, legally binding pact would continue in 2010.
 
Nonetheless, more than 65 heads of state are expected to attend. The White House has not said whether President Obama will be among them.