A 2010 emissions treaty -- it’s all about the U.S.

A note from HSBC Global Research this morning predicts a successful outcome in Copenhagen, where nations will seek a broad political accord on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and climate finance.

Yet attempts to craft a final, binding international climate treaty next year are highly dependent on Capitol Hill, the analysts say.

About Copenhagen: “The presence of over 100 heads of state and prime ministers will mean that a broad political compromise should be achieved, in our view,” the HSBC note states.

But about that final treaty: “The main risk to this process remains the slow progress of domestic climate legislation in the U.S., where looming Congressional elections in November 2010 could impact the ability of the U.S. to sign or ratify a global treaty in the second half of the year.”