Forum set for greater role as UN climate process stumbles

Sarah Ladislaw of the nonpartisan Center for Strategic & International Studies has posted a sharp commentary about pathways for global climate talks after the messy United Nations conference in Copenhagen and its controversial result.

A big takeaway: The G20 and the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate Change -- the latter launched under former President Bush and revamped under President Obama -- could be ascendant as the UN process sputters.

Ladislaw sees three possible futures: In the first, big developing nations like China and India insist on sticking with the UN process, warts and all. In the second, support for the UN as the place to negotiate emissions deals wanes and the big emitting countries look to the MEF or elsewhere.

The third one is messy -- a "fragmented multilateralism" in which the UN holds sway over some areas where deals can be cut, like forest preservation, while other tricky topics are dealt with in a range of other venues. For instance, global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund would handle climate finance, the MEF would grapple with technology and emissions reductions targets, while the G20 would handle issues like phasing out fossil energy subsidies (which it has already begun to address) and global carbon markets.

Worth a read.

This post was updated at 4:17 p.m.