Study: Premiums could rise 25 percent without insurance mandate

Insurance premiums would rise by as much as 25 percent if the healthcare law is implemented without an individual mandate, according to a new analysis from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

The Supreme Court will decide this summer whether the coverage mandate is constitutional, and how much — if any — of the health law's other provisions can remain intact if the coverage requirement falls.

Without the mandate, according to the Robert Wood Johnson analysis, costs would rise and fewer people would be insured.

The healthcare law establishes state-based exchanges for individuals and small businesses to buy coverage. In states where participation in the exchange is high, the loss of the mandate would raise premiums by about 10 percent, according to Thursday's analysis. Individual policies would get about 20 to 25 percent more expensive in states where fewer people use the exchange.

Premiums would rise because young, healthy people would be less likely to buy insurance. The purpose of the mandate is, in large part, to force healthy people into the system, offsetting the cost of guaranteeing coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.

If the healthcare law is implemented without a mandate, the paper says, fewer people would have private insurance than if the law had never been passed in the first place. The Medicaid expansion would be only slightly smaller without a mandate.

The insurance industry has filed a brief urging the Supreme Court to strike the entire healthcare law if it finds the mandate unconstitutional.