|
 |
 |
|
Swing states would see biggest losses in coverage if court strikes health law
Several key swing states would be hit especially hard if the Supreme Court strikes down President Obama's healthcare reform law, according to new data from Avalere Health.
If the court throws out the entire law, about 22.4 million people who would have gotten access to insurance coverage will remain uninsured, Avalere said. About 15 million people who would have been eligible for Medicaid would instead remain uninsured, as would roughly 7.5 million people who would have gotten subsidies to help pay for private insurance.
Avalere also mapped how many people would remain uninsured in each state, and the biggest impacts would be felt in several key battlegrounds.
Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Michigan would each see more than 500,000 people lose access to Medicaid or subsidized private insurance.
The impact would likely be smaller if the court only strikes down part of the ACA. The justices are expected to decide Thursday whether the law's individual mandate, which requires most people to buy insurance or pay a penalty, is constitutional. If it's not, they can strike the entire law or just part of it.
Although losing the mandate would probably lead to a drop in coverage, the law's Medicaid expansion would likely remain intact.
The 26 states that challenged the mandate also argued that the Medicaid expansion is unconstitutional, saying it is "coercive" and takes away states' legal right to opt out of Medicaid. But the justices are not expected to side with the states on that count, and would likely invalidate the Medicaid expansion only if they strike down the entire law.
According to Avalere, several states have already expanded their Medicaid eligibility because of the ACA. The law also barred states from cutting their existing eligibility levels until 2014, when the federally funded expansion kicks in. If the entire healthcare law falls, those safeguards would no longer be in place.
