CTIA estimate faces tough questions

CTIA is facing tough questions on its estimate for how much money would be raised if TV broadcasters sell off their pieces of the airwaves. 

CTIA said in a white paper this week that incentive spectrum auctions can raise $33 billion. Proponents want those airwaves devoted to mobile broadband. 

TV broadcasters would be offered compensation to sell of their pieces of the airwaves.The FCC needs authority from Congress before it can move on auctions.

CTIA's estimate faced strong questions this week. 

Harold Feld, legal director of Public Knowledge, is skeptical about some of the assumptions in the paper. 

His chief concern, he said, is that the study assumes "a relatively modest pay out to broadcasters based on the current estimated market value of their stations, and assumes what I would consider significant participation in the top markets. "

There is nothing to indicate stations in the top markets will want to sell, "particularly at the market value rate used by the report."

That could throw off the whole process, he indicated. "This is the critical unknown because without a minimum participation in the top markets, incentive auctions do not happen -- period," he said. 

Even some of the top proponents of spectrum auctions acknowledge that estimates often vary. 

The architect of the FCC's National Broadband Plan (which laid out the path forward on spectrum auctions), Blair Levin explained that this is because "the experience with auctions suggests that there are many factors that will affect the ultimate price."

"The big auctions often went way beyond the estimate but that doesn't mean it will here. I do think they are in the range, and that that is best one can do," he said. 

Levin added that there are "only two certainties" about such an auction: "It will raise billions" and, "more important, those billions will be more than matched by new investments, new services and new jobs."

The broadcasters were the most skeptical about estimate from CTIA. 

National Association of Broadcasters executive vice president for communications said: "It's hard to take seriously an analysis of broadcast spectrum values done by parties with a vested interest in forcing scores of broadcasters out of business." 

He said that the study "cavalierly suggests eliminating 'smaller stations in larger markets,' which translates into fewer niche broadcast stations that serve important immigrant communities and religious audiences." 

"NAB does not oppose spectrum auctions that are truly voluntary, and we look forward to an informed dialogue in coming months on the enduring value of free and local television for all Americans."