Political prediction market: Dems will retain the Senate
© Getty Images

Some political handicappers in recent weeks have said Republicans are in good shape to win back control of the Senate.

But a political prediction market hasn’t embraced that thinking and pegs the chances of the Senate staying in Democratic hands at 67 percent.

The American Civics Exchange is the first commercial market for political futures, where people can win $5,000 per month while not risking any funds.

Flip Pidot, a co-founder for the exchange, said the market has predicted every policy outcome correctly since the fall of 2013.

Traders can bet on a range of issues, including whether: Russia will seize Western assets (70 percent chance); Comcast and Time Warner Cable will merge (60 percent); embattled New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) resigns (12 percent); and Clay Aiken wins his congressional race (29 percent).

The market is bearish on Democrats winning back the House (14 percent), the minimum wage being hiked (30 percent) and a special prosecutor being tapped to investigate the IRS targeting controversy (10 percent).

The market is bullish that the Food and Drug Administration will regulate e-cigarettes (70 percent), the XL Keystone oil pipeline will be approved (59 percent) and a Democratic president will win the 2016 presidential race (75 percent).

The website is located at http://amciv.com.