Political prediction market: Dems will retain the Senate

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Some political handicappers in recent weeks have said Republicans are in good shape to win back control of the Senate.

But a political prediction market hasn’t embraced that thinking and pegs the chances of the Senate staying in Democratic hands at 67 percent.

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The American Civics Exchange is the first commercial market for political futures, where people can win $5,000 per month while not risking any funds.

Flip Pidot, a co-founder for the exchange, said the market has predicted every policy outcome correctly since the fall of 2013.

Traders can bet on a range of issues, including whether: Russia will seize Western assets (70 percent chance); Comcast and Time Warner Cable will merge (60 percent); embattled New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) resigns (12 percent); and Clay Aiken wins his congressional race (29 percent).

The market is bearish on Democrats winning back the House (14 percent), the minimum wage being hiked (30 percent) and a special prosecutor being tapped to investigate the IRS targeting controversy (10 percent).

The market is bullish that the Food and Drug Administration will regulate e-cigarettes (70 percent), the XL Keystone oil pipeline will be approved (59 percent) and a Democratic president will win the 2016 presidential race (75 percent).

The website is located at http://amciv.com.