OVERNIGHT MONEY: Let the debate begin

THURSDAY'S BIG STORY:

All that's left is the battle: In a matter of hours, President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will begin their mile-high debate in Denver before about 50 million viewers on why they are the best man to boost the economic recovery. 

On Thursday, both camps — and pretty much every political analyst — will focus on dissecting their performances, naming a winner and trying to determine what exactly that means for the candidates in the home stretch of what is a tight race for the White House. 

Unquestionably, both candidates will have to strike a balance between detailing their plans to spur economic growth with concise, focused answers that can hold the attention of viewers and voters. 

The candidates, who have been prepping for weeks, will have to be on their toes: the format calls for a deft handling of the issues, with the debate's 90 minutes broken down into six 15-minute segments and only two minutes to answer each question. 

Expect three questions on the economy, one on healthcare, one on governing and another on the role of government.

With just five weeks to go before Election Day, Romney is running behind in most polls, and the debate gives him a chance narrow the gap by clearly explaining the specifics on how he wants to overhaul the tax code, balance the budget, reduce regulations, create jobs and shore up the healthcare and entitlements systems.

Romney will take on the Obama administration's policies for failing to lower unemployment below 8 percent or generating strong economic growth.

He could also provide reasons for why job growth has become stymied since Obama took office, including U.S. trade policies that haven't been tough enough toward China. 

And he'll probably criticize the president for calling on Congress to let tax cuts expire for higher-income earners. Romney argues that proposal would further dent hiring plans by businesses.

Romney has said that his administration would lead to the creation of 12 million jobs over the next four years. 

On Tuesday, the GOP nominee proposed limiting individual tax deductions to $17,000, as a way to make his tax plan revenue-neutral. 

The Obama camp has said, as structured, Romney's plan would add $5 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, a claim Republicans have rebuked. 

The Tax Policy Center estimates that, essentially, 81.3 percent of the tax savings from itemized deductions goes to the top 20 percent of taxpayers, those who make at least $108,000 a year. Another 26 percent goes to the top 1 percent, at $500,000 a year and higher, and 13 percent to the top 0.1 percent, those who make more than $3 million a year. 

"On the issue of tax reform, I think Gov. Romney will offer a great deal of specifics about what he would do to lower the middle-class tax," Romney adviser Kevin Madden said in an interview on CBS ahead of the debate. 

He is likely to argue that runaway spending — probably including the 2009 economic stimulus — endangers future economic stability and that his policies provide the only formula for robust growth. 

Over the weekend, top Republicans trumpeted Romney's debating skills and predicted that the showdown will put Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan into the driver's seat. 

Meanwhile, the president will have to protect his narrow lead, and his record, by avoiding missteps. 

A strong performance could help him open up a larger lead nationwide, especially across the hotly contested states of Florida, Virginia and Ohio. 

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday night showed the president leading Romney 50 percent to 43 percent in Ohio, but only up 1 percentage point in Florida and by 2 points in Virginia, where Obama will shift his campaign on Friday. 

Romney and Ryan head to Virginia on Thursday. 

Obama will argue that a vote for Romney is a show of support for policies that led to the 2008 recession and prolonged economic challenges facing the nation. 

Obama is likely to hammer Romney on his tax plan and position himself as the best choice to help the middle class, saying his opponent's comments categorizing "47 percent" of Americans as victims who feel they're entitled to government support proves that the former Massachusetts governor will cater to wealthier Americans and leave the middle class behind. 

The president's toughest sell will be how he has helped the economy and kept it from sliding into a depression. 

Jobs have been created every month since October 2010, the housing market is finally showing signs of solid growth and the manufacturing and the service sectors are bolstering the slow recovery. 

In addition, he'll likely tout that he has provided a system under which anyone can get health insurance. 

He's likely to acknowledge that he knows many Americans are still struggling, but say that the nation is headed in the right direction, and argue that a full recovery from the deep financial crisis that decimated the housing market and created massive jobs losses will take more time. 

That message could resonate with the middle-class voters who have buoyed his poll numbers — they say they trust Obama will do a better job protecting their interests. 

Plus, the president's likability has given him an edge, underscoring the difficult challenge Romney has in cutting into his lead. 

So, let the policy battle begin. 

WHAT ELSE TO WATCH FOR

A look behind the curtain: On Thursday, not as erroneously thought on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its latest policy-setting meeting, which will include details of its talks about the latest round of quantitative easing. On Monday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the move and pushed back against Republican claims that the plan required the government to print more money. 

All but one voting Fed official agreed to the new stimulus, which means the central bank is buying upward of $40 billion of mortgage bonds a month until it sees substantial improvement in the labor market.

Opening a path: The American Chamber of Commerce Panama will hold an event on Thursday to discuss its role in business growth in the Americas. 

The United States and Panama are still working toward implementing a trade agreement, the last of three that were passed by Congress about a year ago. Panama's legislature has been working on the issue. 

The nation is expanding the Panama canal, which trade experts say will bolster U.S. exports through the region. The expansion is expected to open in 2015. 

The forum will include Obama administration trade officials Miriam Sapiro, deputy U.S. trade representative; Francisco Sanchez, under secretary of Commerce for International Trade; and U.S. Ambassador to Panama Jonathan Farrar. 

Also set to speak are Panama Vice Minister of Foreign Trade Jose Pacheco Tejeira and Alberto Diamond, Panama Banking Commission superintendent of Banks.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Initial Claims: The Labor Department releases its weekly filings for jobless benefits, which dropped steeply last week and could provide more insight into the trajectory of the job market a day before the monthly figures are announced. 

Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac is releasing weekly data on fixed-rate mortgages, which have hit historic lows.  

WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED

— Report: Private-sector employment up 162,000 last month

— Survey: Economic uncertainty weighing on job growth

— Service sector grows at fastest pace in six months

— Mortgage applications make huge jump

— Shaheen tells Bank of America to stop misleading underwater homeowners

— Barney Frank signs with William Morris

Catch us on Twitter: @VickoftheHill, @peteschroeder, @elwasson and @berniebecker3

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