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OVERNIGHT MONEY: First Friday
FRIDAY’S BIG STORY:
Here's a word you don't hear in Washington very often: jobs.
OK, we’re kidding. But still, get ready to hear it a whole lot tomorrow.
That's because Friday morning will play host to the latest edition of the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, the indicator everyone watches for the latest sense of how Americans are faring in what has been a grim employment situation.
The unemployment rate currently stands at 9.1 percent, and forecasters are expecting that number to hold firm for the third straight month with Friday's report.
All that said, there were some slight scraps of optimism to be had in the days leading up to the report. Initial claims for unemployment benefits came in Thursday slightly higher, but below economists' expectations. And a private-sector report released Wednesday showed private companies added 91,000 jobs in September, again beating expectations.
Still, the ADP report does not reflect changes in public-sector jobs, which have steadily declined as governments look to shore up their budgets.
For the government's official report, economists are estimating September's data will show the economy added a net of somewhere between 50,000 and 75,000 jobs — well short of the 130,000 in monthly growth needed to keep up with the expanding adult population.
But as a sign of how bleak things have gotten lately, any jobs whatsoever would represent a definitive upgrade from last month's report, which saw the Labor Department deliver a big goose-egg on the jobs front.
Not much in Congress: Capitol Hill is slated to be largely dark tomorrow, with Yom Kippur, the Jewish holiday, starting at sundown and Monday the observance of Columbus Day.
Top Senate Democrats are expected to meet with President Obama about his jobs package on Friday, in a meeting originally scheduled for today. At his Thursday news conference, the president said he was comfortable with the Senate’s proposal to pay for the jobs plan with a surtax on millionaires.
GOP candidates everywhere!: The Family Research Council launches its Values Voter Summit Friday, with John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich all on the Friday docket.
FRC is known mostly for its social conservatism, but you can bet these Republican policymakers and presidential contenders will veer over into fiscal issues from time to time.
Multinationals weigh in: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is set to lead a Friday discussion on how to increase foreign investment in the U.S. The conversation gives Jeff Immelt of General Electric and Antonio Perez of Kodak, both members of President Obama’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, the chance to drive home their message that increased foreign direct investment translates into jobs. As it stands, subsidiaries of foreign firms employ 5 million Americans.
Nancy McLernon, the chief executive of the Organization for International Investment, said she expects business to pitch corporate tax reform at the meeting as a way to boost U.S. competitiveness. The U.S. has one of the highest tax rates in the world — although, with the tax code riddled with credits and deductions, some firms like GE pay astonishingly little in taxes. On other fronts, investors are also interested in easing temporary visas for business representatives.
OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS:
— The Commerce Department will release its wholesale trade report that includes sales and inventory statistics from the second stage of the manufacturing process. The sales figures say close to nothing about personal consumption and therefore do not have much impact on the market.
— Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve releases its monthly measure of consumer debt.
BREAKING THURSDAY
The Thursday rush: At press time, the Senate was still hoping to squeeze in further votes on its China currency measure, after another day of machinations centering on the Obama jobs plan.
In related news, the president said at his news conference that he was concerned the China currency measure could break WTO obligations.
Trade deals = fast track?: With the South Korean president’s visit scheduled to visit Washington in a week, our Vicki Needham reports that the Senate Finance Committee is scheduled to mark up the bills on Tuesday — and that the House and Senate could hold votes on Wednesday.
On this same front, the conservative Club for Growth issued the latest in a recent flurry of key vote alerts on Thursday, this time calling for the passage of the trade pacts with Korea, Colombia and Panama.
Occupy White House?: Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.), the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said Thursday that the Occupy Wall Street protests could be centered too far north.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Bachus said at a hearing that “the demonstrators probably ought to be demonstrating in front of Congress, the White House, and the secretary over at Treasury.”
WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED
— Richard Cordray advances, party-line style
— Geithner: We’re not trying to rein in bank profits
— CFTC investigations, enforcement actions shoot up
— Kent Conrad blames party leaders, White House for budget problems
— Paul Ryan: Supreme Court will strike down healthcare overhaul
— He’s no fan of the surtax either
— Kay Hagan, John McCain drop repatriation bill
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