Wall Street expects big bonuses

Fifty percent of U.S.-based financial services professionals expect this year's bonuses to exceed last year's, according to a new poll. 

Of this group, 19 percent expect bonuses will exceed last year's payout by at least 30 percent, the survey by eFinancialCareers Global Bonus Expectations Survey. Thirty-four percent say personal performance will be the main reason for the larger paycheck. 

"Wall Street employers will have to deal with professionals who believe they are in contention for fatter paychecks and the inevitable retention issues should their expectations be dashed," said Constance Melrose, eFinancialCareers managing director, in prepared remarks. "Recruitment activity on Wall Street is solid, and talented professionals always have options."

Bonuses on Wall Street became a huge political story last year after AIG awarded bonuses to a unit blamed in part for the financial crisis that led to a $700 billion bailout. The Troubled Asset Relief Program is now being hailed by the Obama administration as a dramatic success. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner over the weekend said it may cost the government less than $50 billion.

But TARP remains unpopular with the public, partly because of a sense that Wall Street was saved during the financial crisis while main street businesses were left to suffer. While Wall Street professionals hope to win bonuses, unemployment remained at 9.6 percent in September.

Financial services professionals in Asia are even more confident about getting a bonus.

In Hong Kong, 71 percent anticipate a larger payout; in Singapore, 69 percent expect a bigger bonus. Fifty-seven percent expect larger paychecks in the U.K., as compared to only 47 percent in Germany.

When asked about the potential downward influences on bonuses, market conditions topped the list of concerns (59 percent). The Frank-Dodd financial reform bill came in second, with 17 percent.

The survey tapped the opinions of 5,671 financial services professionals between Sept. 15 and 28. The report can be found at www.eFinancialCareers.com.