Plans of GOP candidates would grow debt, watchdog says

The four remaining GOP presidential candidates would all increase the national debt with their budget proposals if only their specific spending-cut proposals are considered, according to a report released Thursday by an independent group.

U.S. Budget Watch said the four candidates’ calls for spending cuts would not be enough to offset their proposals for deep tax cuts.

The group looked at three different scenarios in making its calculations for the budgets offered by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.), former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul (Texas).

In the first, it assumed what it described as the candidates' “vague” overall spending promises would be kept. In another, it considered non-specific cuts to parts of the budget offered by the candidates. In the third, it only gave credit for specific proposals.



When only specific spending-cut proposals are credited, Romney would add $2.1 trillion to the debt by 2012, Santorum would add $5.3 trillion, Gingrich would add $9.6 billion and Paul would add $1.8 trillion.



If candidates are credited with non-specified changes to specific parts of the budget, only Paul is able to offset his tax cuts with spending cuts sufficiently.



In that scenario, Paul reduces the debt by $2.2 trillion through $7.5 trillion in spending cuts. Romney would add $250 billion to the debt, Santorum would add $4.5 trillion and Gingrich would add $7 trillion.



Finally, U.S. Budget Watch gives a score based on vague promises to cut overall spending. 



Even by that generous measure, Gingrich still adds $2.9 trillion to the debt by 2021. Romney would cut the debt by $2.3 trillion, Santorum would cut the debt by $2.7 trillion and Paul would cut the debt by $4.3 trillion.



All these figures are compared to current policy in which the Bush-era tax rates are extended and the automatic supercommittee trigger requiring spending cuts is waived.



Romney released a revised tax cut proposal, including a 20 percent cut in income taxes, on Wednesday. The study says that Romney's new tax plan could add $2.6 trillion more to the debt if the cuts are not offset. Romney said the cuts will be "deficit neutral," but Budget Watch warns that popular tax deductions like that for mortgage interest, charity and employer-provided healthcare would have to be on the table for this to be the case.

U.S Budget Watch is a project of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that is pushing a deficit grand bargain this year. The project will release an analysis of President Obama’s 2013 budget in the coming weeks. 


U.S. Budget Watch does not use so-called dynamic scoring, in which economic growth due to tax cuts is taken into effect. All the GOP presidential candidates claim that their large tax increases will generate growth and thereby increase tax revenue.

The project also does not look at long-term cuts to entitlements like Social Security, since these changes take effect after 2021.

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