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Unemployment claims take big leap

By Vicki Needham - 07/19/12 08:49 AM ET

First-time unemployment claims took a steep jump last week as shifting auto plant layoffs skewed the data. 

Applications for jobless benefits bumped up 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000 after a large drop off the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. 

The government adjusts claims around seasonal factors such as summertime auto industry layoffs, which haven't been as predictable this year because automakers, for one, are cutting back on the length of the shutdowns to prepare for the next model year.

The automakers cite increased consumer demand for keeping their plants open this year. 

That has made the data more challenging to determine, and the fluctuations in the data could last several weeks, according to the Labor Department. 

The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figure, was down by 1,500 to 375,500.

Economists argue that in a healthier job market, claims tend to stay below 375,000.

Economists say the seasonal distortions could last a few weeks, making the figures difficult to analyze.

When applications fall below 375,000, it typically suggests hiring is strong enough to pull the unemployment rate down. Applications had been trending near or above that level this spring.

The economic recovery has slowed again this summer again over concerns about the European financial crisis and uncertainty surrounding the so-called fiscal cliff, a volatile mix of trillions in spending and tax policies that require action by the end of the year. 


Source:
http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/238913-unemployment-claims-take-big-leap

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