FED LIKELY TO DOWNGRADE OUTLOOK — Financial
Times on Tuesday's meeting: "Faced with weak economic data and rising
fears of a double-dip recession, the Federal Open Market Committee is
likely to ensure its policy is not constraining growth and to use its
statement to signal greater concern about the economy. It is, however,
unlikely to agree big new steps to boost growth." http://bit.ly/dgiU94
WSJ
says the Fed meeting is "likely to feature further debate over whether the Fed
should renew extraordinary measures to kick-start growth [...] may include
resuming purchases of Treasury debt or mortgage-backed bonds, likely,
at least to start with, by using money generated from existing holdings
of such debt as they mature." http://bit.ly/9bfDRI
Also Tuesday, the House returns to vote on the $26.1 billion jobs bill with state aid.
Unions,
who pushed hard for the bill, will "rev up campaign machinery" once
President Obama signs it. The Hill's Kevin Bogardus:
http://bit.ly/d3EWgY
THE NEW NORMAL: HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, LOW RETURNS — ICYMI, the Sunday NYT's must-read on pessimism over the economy, a view shared by Clinton and Bush economists: "The
'new normal,' as it has come to be called on Wall Street, academia and
CNBC, envisions an economy in which growth is too slow to bring down
the unemployment rate, while the government is forced to intervene ever
more forcefully in a struggling private sector. Stocks and bonds yield
paltry returns, with better opportunities available for investors
overseas."
Glenn Hubbard, former Bush adviser, calls for more
federal investments in education: “If there is a new normal, it’s more
about the labor market than GDP. ... We have to help people face a new
world.”
Laura Tyson, former Clinton
adviser: “I think we’re going to have slower growth, a higher household
savings rate and an elevated unemployment rate for several years.”
http://nyti.ms/blEaQp
(Tyson is being floated by the
administration as possible successor to Christina Romer as chairwoman of
the Council of Economic Advisers. Reuters: http://yhoo.it/cdMsHE)
AND/BUT... Monday's must-read — WSJ: "SOME FIRMS STRUGGLE TO FILL JOBS..."
"Employers
and economists" blame it on: 1) extending jobless benefits to 99 weeks;
2) homeowners unable to move; and 3) the job market's shift away from
middle-wage jobs that's created "a glut of people who can't qualify for
highly skilled jobs but have a hard time adjusting to low-pay,
unskilled work." http://bit.ly/aVY1yO
More people filing early for Social Security. WaPo: http://bit.ly/91dt3r
Gibbs tells The Hill the WH economics team is "exhausted," and that friction with Lawrence Summers wasn't the cause for Romer's departure. http://bit.ly/chhA0J
FINREG — Another financial crisis could hit before Wall Street reforms in place.
Bloomberg: "Many of the measures ordered by Congress and global
regulators, aimed at cushioning the financial system in future crises,
are years away from being implemented. The Basel Committee on Banking
Supervision plans to give the world’s banks until 2018 to comply with
limits on how much they can borrow. Parts of the Volcker rule, a
provision of the new Dodd-Frank Act that would force firms to cut
stakes in in-house hedge funds and private-equity units, may not go
into effect for a dozen years." http://bit.ly/bY0b79 (h/t Silla)
How banks are trying to get around the Volcker Rule. WSJ: http://bit.ly/cEuEyn
DEFICIT V. STIMULUS — Bob
Rubin opposes another stimulus, favors finding a plan to deal with
deficits in about two years. HuffPo: http://huff.to/a8jHfh
Robert Samuelson warns that deficit reduction through higher taxes may mean less kids: http://bit.ly/d9w20y
Megan McArdle says Paul Krugman's wrong about the Ryan Roadmap. http://bit.ly/9k9laq