YUAN TENSIONS FLARE
A day after President Obama rolled out his plan to battle back an economic slowdown, the financial wires remind us it’s not all about the U.S. Congress is gearing up for post-recess action on the yuan, blaming its low value for boosting Chinese exports at the expense of the U.S. economy.
Reuters: “Senate, House eye action on China currency” http://bit.ly/9tStwa
“China said in June that it would permit market forces greater sway in setting the yuan's value, yet it has only appreciated about 0.6 percent since then.
Pressure is building in both the House of Representatives and Senate over the issue, creating some nervousness among analysts about the risk that legislative proposals may stir more trade tensions.”
The story notes the possible moves:
- Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said they have the votes for China currency bill.
- House Ways and Means has set Sept. 15 hearing on the yuan.
- Senate Banking Committee is planning a Sept. 16 hearing with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the wire’s sources said.
“The hearings would occur when frustration at persistently high U.S. unemployment at nearly 10 percent is a growing threat to Democrats' chances at retaining control of Congress in November and is a goad to lawmakers seeking a target for soaring U.S. deficits.”
Bloomberg on why everyone’s mad: “China trade surplus probably exceeded $20 billion, stoking Yuan tension.” http://bit.ly/cuwq9P
“Exports probably exceeded imports by $26.9 billion, compared with $15.7 billion in the same month a year earlier, according to the median of 34 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey... Premier Wen Jiabao’s government limited the yuan’s gain to less than 1 percent versus the dollar since a June pledge for greater flexibility... 'Frankly they haven’t let the currency move very much so far,’ U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ‘They know they’re just at the beginning of that process and I think we’d like to see them move more quickly.’”
Meanwhile in Beijing: Summers and Donilon get access to China President Hu and Premier Wen. http://bit.ly/9luxF3
SecState Clinton said Wednesday the debt is a national security threat. http://bit.ly/9TXqJM
The U.S. dropped from being the second most-competitive economy to the fourth in the World Economic Forum’s latest rankings. Bloomberg: “A budget shortfall of more than $1 trillion and public distrust of politicians were among the weaknesses in the world’s largest economy.” http://bit.ly/bEaTaJ
The top three slots went to Switzerland, Sweden and Singapore.
OBAMA SPEECH POST-GAME
WaPo hed: “Obama plan gets cool reception.” http://bit.ly/aXQNCn
“...Obama's proposal for $180 billion in fresh infrastructure spending and business tax breaks is not satisfying many of the groups he needs on his side - not lawmakers on Capital Hill who are leery of raising the deficit by spending more, not economists who say the plan is too modest to create many jobs, and not business groups that say the tax benefits come with too many strings attached.”
Those quoted in opposition: Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), the Business Roundtable and Senate Republicans. Big companies, such as Intel and GE, have yet to weigh in.
NYT edit board says Obama took too long to engage on the economy and John Boehner, but it’s glad he finally did: “Mr. Obama’s speeches were a robust effort by the president to rally Democrats for the election. It has been a long time coming. And we wish that Democratic leaders in Congress could show the same clear thinking and the same willingness to go head to head with the Republicans.” http://nyti.ms/c7eWz2
Boehner’s policy response: two-year tax rate freeze, return to 2008 spending levels: http://bit.ly/c2ViSz
BUSH TAX CUTS UPDATE
Now that the president has stood by his call for extending only the middle-class Bush-era tax cuts, Peter Orszag clarifies his stance in an interview with Greg Sargent. “[Orszag] only favors temporarily extending the tax cuts for the rich reluctantly, and only if it's the sole way of obtaining a deal that would end them altogether.” http://bit.ly/bx2TKo
WSJ hed: "Tax Cuts Dividing Democrats" http://bit.ly/ck40wM
But further down in the story... “Democratic leaders say the majority of their members still favor letting the upper-income tax cuts expire and believe the issue cuts in their favor in a time of populist fervor. On a conference call of House Democrats this week, there was broad consensus behind the idea, according to a person on the call.”
Sen. Olympia Snowe shows GOP less conflicted: the Maine centrist opposes Obama plan. In prepared remarks, the Maine Republican urged "the president and Democratic congressional leaders to swiftly reject job-killing tax increases in these uncertain economic times, and allow a vote on legislation to extend all of the 2001 and 2003 tax relief set to expire on December 31." http://bit.ly/aznFWM
Finreg Story of the Day: Elizabeth Warren “slipped quietly” into WH for meeting with Obama. Warren is the left’s favored choice to head the newly created Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection. The president is also looking at others, including Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr. WaPo: http://bit.ly/9mQhsx
Finreg affects more than Wall Street: Reform threatens Small Savers day care in NW Washington. “Small Savers parents - who include White House staffers, World Bankers, lobbyists, lawyers and journalists - have quickly become a lobbying juggernaut to save the small Washington institution under G Street.” WaPo: http://bit.ly/aenNtp
Economic Impact Story of the Day: NYT, A1. "Falling Rates Aid Debtors, But Hamper Savers"
“Households and corporations alike are refinancing their loans in droves to take advantage of interest rates that seem impossibly cheap. But those same low rates come with a flip side, driving down the income of retirees and others who live off their savings.” http://nyti.ms/cYz1q3
“Blue Chip economists cut U.S. growth forecast again” Economic growth for 2010 will be 2.7 percent, 0.2 points lower than the economists forecast last month. The 2011 forecast was downgraded 0.3 points to 2.5 percent. The unemployment rate is projected to be 9.6 percent at the end of this year and 9 percent at the end of 2011. Reuters: http://bit.ly/bHFQWz
Fed “beige book” report finds the economic recovery advancing unevenly. “... factories, farms and mines were all seeing ‘continued gains in demand and sales,’ while housing sales — and the related construction industry — slowed after the expiration of a federal tax credit that encouraged housing sales.” WSJ: http://bit.ly/bVt5ph
And yet: Job openings rise for first time since April. http://bit.ly/bYOkN6