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Super Dilemma
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03/20/08 11:55 AM ET
Timing is everything in politics, as I have said too many times in this space, but the confluence of the chances for re-votes in Michigan and Florida folding and the historic speech on race by Barack Obama is remarkable.
As Hillary Clinton struggles to portray the Democratic race as competitive and close, the conventional wisdom has set in — the superdelegates have to go with Obama, it's over for her. Our colleague Dick Morris, fellow blogger and columnist at The Hill, said this week that the party would only pass over the winner of pledged delegates and hand the nomination to Clinton if Obama were in jail. Daily Kos has proclaimed Clinton hard at work on civil war since the only way she can win is by dividing her party. Handing Clinton the nomination would amount to the Democratic Party kissing the youth vote and the black vote goodbye.
Yet behind the scenes, superdelegates keep hearing from the Clintons — that Hillary wins the big states, that Hillary can end up with the higher popular vote in June, that she (finally) polls better against John McCain, that her national poll lead is widening, that she will win Pennsylvania. Most importantly they are hearing that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright will spell the end for Obama and give Republicans the White House if her party chooses him.
Will the Wright hate-speech argument persuade spooked superdelegates? Will Al Gore — popular vote martyr — counsel his party to reject the winner of pledged delegates, and probably of the popular vote as well? Did Obama's courageous speech on race impress or convince the party that Obama is presidential, the right man at the right moment?
If I were a superdelegate in the Democratic Party I would not want to have to choose between bypassing the vote winner and losing young and black voters, and I wouldn't want to risk losing the White House one more time.
Glad I'm not one.
***
WHAT WILL THE SUPERS DO? ASK A.B. returns Monday, March 24 — Please join me for my weekly Q & A video posts by sending useful, interesting and entertaining questions to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
As Hillary Clinton struggles to portray the Democratic race as competitive and close, the conventional wisdom has set in — the superdelegates have to go with Obama, it's over for her. Our colleague Dick Morris, fellow blogger and columnist at The Hill, said this week that the party would only pass over the winner of pledged delegates and hand the nomination to Clinton if Obama were in jail. Daily Kos has proclaimed Clinton hard at work on civil war since the only way she can win is by dividing her party. Handing Clinton the nomination would amount to the Democratic Party kissing the youth vote and the black vote goodbye.
Yet behind the scenes, superdelegates keep hearing from the Clintons — that Hillary wins the big states, that Hillary can end up with the higher popular vote in June, that she (finally) polls better against John McCain, that her national poll lead is widening, that she will win Pennsylvania. Most importantly they are hearing that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright will spell the end for Obama and give Republicans the White House if her party chooses him.
Will the Wright hate-speech argument persuade spooked superdelegates? Will Al Gore — popular vote martyr — counsel his party to reject the winner of pledged delegates, and probably of the popular vote as well? Did Obama's courageous speech on race impress or convince the party that Obama is presidential, the right man at the right moment?
If I were a superdelegate in the Democratic Party I would not want to have to choose between bypassing the vote winner and losing young and black voters, and I wouldn't want to risk losing the White House one more time.
Glad I'm not one.
***
WHAT WILL THE SUPERS DO? ASK A.B. returns Monday, March 24 — Please join me for my weekly Q & A video posts by sending useful, interesting and entertaining questions to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
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