2009 election — The Republican Party’s ‘lose, lose, lose’ scenario

With just days to the 2009 election, we can prepare for ourselves an avalanche of media reports, blog posts, tweets, e-mails (OK, you get the idea) of what the results in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races mean for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

Truth to be told, it won’t mean much no matter what happens. Why, you say? First, with about a year to the 2010 midterm elections and three years to the presidential elections, the results of what happens in Virginia (McDonnell will win, unfortunately), and New Jersey (Corzine will win, fortunately) will be long forgotten. Second, as much as people want to make state races in an off-year about the incumbent president’s popularity or lack thereof, they really come down to state issues (not national ones), and how candidates and campaigns ran against each other. That being said, nothing will stop the avalanche of stories and comments by the political intelligentsia, who will try to extract national meaning from two state races that at best can be described as traditionally blue (New Jersey) and purple (Virginia).

On the other hand, the special election in New York-23 has, in my opinion, national implications for the Republican Party. And, regardless of whether Dede Scozzafava (R), Bill Owens (D) or Doug Hoffman (C) wins, the outcome is “lose, lose, lose” for the Republican Party. In fact, the Republican Party, in its zealous pursuit of ideological purity, has decided to play Russian political roulette with itself and willingly decided to load the proverbial gun with six bullets. In other words, or to get to the point, regardless of who wins in NY-23, the Republican Party has found a way — incredibly — to lose, even if it happens to win.

How so?

Well, if Bill Owens (D) wins, he will have a won a seat that no Democrat has held since before the Civil War. Translation — Republicans lose big.

If Dede Scozzafava (R) wins, she will be persona non grata with her party’s leadership, she will find it nearly impossible to raise money, she is GUARRANTEED to face another primary challenger and, most amazingly, she will become the constant target of the far-right grass roots, which will use her candidacy to scare every Republican who dares utter support for progressive causes.

As a result, moderate Republicans or moderate independents will watch a Republican Party attack one of its own for many of the views and progressive positions that a majority of the country now supports.

In other words, Scozzafava should pack very lightly. Or, translation — Republicans lose again. But it gets worse.

If Doug Hoffman wins, he will become a champion of the far right and its grass roots. He will be seen as a modern version (OK, distant fifth cousin) of Ronald Reagan. The conservative voices, from Sarah Palin to Dick Armey (OK, what is it with Republicans who are named Dick and how they seem to find new ways to bring down their own party? Yes, I know: so many jokes, my head is exploding), will rejoice and cry to the heavens, “We did it. We made a safe Republican seat a safe Conservative Party seat. Umm … d’oh!”

Actually, it’s worse than that. If Hoffman wins, the Republican (Conservative) Party will have basically declared war itself. The Republican-Conservative Party will have declared war on every moderate in the Republican Party, not to mention will have told every moderate Republican out there to not even consider running for office because we will get you. If Hoffman wins, an emboldened far-out conservative grass roots fueled by Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin will use what it did in NY-23 against every moderate Republican in the country. (I can see it now: Don't dare cross us, "moderate Republican," whomever you are, or we will "Scozzafava you.")

In fact, this little civil war brewing within the Republican Party that is currently being played out in all its glory in NY-23 will spill over into the midterms and even the Republican primary. In fact, I can already see it now — Republican presidential candidates falling all over themselves to be seen as more conservative than Palin.

Even worse, the far-out wing of the Republican Party will have basically said to moderate voters that you and your progressive desires for more affordable healthcare, equal rights, clean environment, etc., are not welcome here

Now, if I weren’t positive this wasn’t the case, I would start to think that “Republicans” like Palin, Armey and Tim “Pawlenty-of-trouble,” not to mention folks like Beck and Limbaugh, are actually all Democrats. Because, the truth is, this cast of keystone right-wing politicians are doing more to help Democrats win than even some Democrats.

In any event, NY-23 is the race to watch on Election Day. But whatever happens, the Republican Party faces another lose, lose, lose scenario. And, amazingly, it may only get worse for them.