Election Day 2009: Less than meets the eye

Election Day 2009. One year after Barack Obama was elected president, and everybody’s going to be watching three elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3 — in New York, New Jersey and Virginia — to see what it means for Obama’s political power.

Which is, let’s face it, way, way overblown. There is a lot less happening in those three contests than meets the eye. And a lot less than pundits would have you believe.

In New York. Even if conservative Republican Doug Hoffman wins. The story is not that a Republican wins in a longtime Republican congressional district. The story is that moderate Republicans, no matter what district in the nation they run in, are no longer welcome in the Republican Party.

In Virginia. Even if Republican Bob McDonnell wins. The story is not that a Republican wins in a longtime red state. The story is twofold. One, that he only won by running as a moderate, Rockefeller Republican, repudiating Sarah Palin’s endorsement. And, two, that Virginia Democrats nominated a lackluster candidate who ran a horrible campaign.

In New Jersey. Even if Republican Chris Christie wins. The story is not that a Republican wins in a blue state. The story is that Jon Corzine, as smart as he is, raised taxes, struggled with a tough economy, and ended up with lousy approval ratings that not even Barack Obama could overcome.

So, the realistic outlook for Democrats today: Hope for the best, and be prepared for the worst. But just don’t read too much into it.

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