Campaign

Congress is scheduled back today for the next month, and it is clear that the last year and a half of the Bush administration will not be a “combat-free zone.” Unlike the last two years of Eisenhower or Reagan (after Iran Contra), the end of the Bush administration will more resemble the end of the Clinton administration and the first Bush presidency. In both cases, the party that controlled Congress clashed repeatedly with the party in control of the White House as a prelude to the next national election.

This is by design from both sides. There are clear policy differences between the parties on matters such as executive privilege, Iraq policy, federal spending and judicial appointments. There seems to be little interest in trying to find common legislative ground; each side wants to preserve the “issues” to run on in the next election. Thus far, “base” politics is alive and well. Read more...

There's a new Quick Poll! question on this page that you should vote in. Republicans are worried by the uphill challenge they face in the November '08, when they must defend 22 Senate seats compared to the Democrats' 12. This is bruited as an explanation for recent GOP defections on the Iraq war. Scroll down the page, cast your vote and give us an idea of how you assess the Republicans' predicament.

The most important and least understood event in Washington politics is the strong possibility that Senate Republicans face an epic disaster of historic dimension in 2008.

With 22 Senate Republicans running in 2008, if the Democrats run Felix the Cat for president the Republicans will almost certainly lose seats in the Senate.

If the Democrats run a respectable presidential campaign, the Republicans could well lose five seats or more.

If the Democratic presidential candidate wins in 2008 it is very conceivable that Democrats could end up with nearly 60 senators. Read more...

Did anyone hear the whooping, hooting, and hollering coming from Hillary Clinton's campaign headquarters last Thursday when the immigration reform bill failed a procedural vote in the Senate? Sure, Clinton voted to proceed with the controversial compromise, but she couldn't have been happier to watch it die.

According to a Gallop poll released last week, Clinton now stands to benefit the most from the backlash against the Republicans and President Bush among Hispanic voters. The findings show that, by a nearly 3-1 margin, Hispanic voters are identifying themselves as Democrats or leaning Democratic — and the immigration debate is a major factor. Clinton can now appeal to this critical voting bloc but won't be dogged by a vote for final passage of an amnesty package for illegals, a bill so unpopular that protesting voters managed to jam the Senate phone system with their calls.  Read more...

In this video, Armstrong Williams explains why he thinks poor, middle class voters chose George W. Bush in 2004 and why they will be the deciding factor in 2008.

In this video, Karen Hanretty discusses an ongoing story in the presss about corruption within the California GOP.

David Hill, director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988, has a column posted on The Hill entitled "Overblown GOP apocalypse" in which he asserts the GOP isn't so bad off as the conservative bloggers and pundits would have you believe. Cases in point, he writes, are Florida and California.

"Consider Florida, where the newly elected Republican governor is already so popular that Floridians may forget about Jeb Bush. And the state legislature is dominated by the GOP. ... At the other end of the country, in California, you see a Republican Party that's bouncing back under the leadership of a suddenly stronger and more popular governor."

I've lived and worked in California (formerly as the communications director for the California Republican Party), and I can tell you things in the Golden State aren't all that rosy for the GOP. Consider that they lost Richard Pombo's congressional seat in a district where Republicans hold a registration advantage of 43%-37%. (In every other district, both congressional and legislative, in the state where Republicans hold at least 40% registration, they control the seat.)  Read more...

The most important item of information in the campaign-finance reports that have leaked so far is that Obama raised his $25 million from 100,000 donors while Hillary raised her $26 million from 50,000. And, to rub it in, Obama got 4,500 more donors the day after he announced his financial filing. At this stage of the game, the number of donors is more important than the amount of their donations. Nobody is really going to start spending media money massively this early, so the bank account sizes are really symbolic statements of a candidate's viability. The totals are to show off, not to spend.

But with twice as many donors, Obama can reload and add to his total much faster and more easily than can Hillary. Read more...

After he has spent more than five years meticulously building a second presidential campaign, this one meant to carry him over the finish line, it's hard to believe Sen. John McCain's candidacy has stumbled so badly. With money drying up and poll numbers falling, McCain has found ever since the midterm elections of 2006 that his support for the Iraq war is a ball and chain following him wherever he goes. As he drags it around it drags him down but doesn't seem to hold back Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney, both of whom supported the recent troop increase right along with McCain.

On Sunday, McCain began a public-relations offensive he hopes will help redefine him as the right leader on the country's most difficult issue. With a Washington Post editorial, a "60 Minutes" interview and an upcoming speech at the Virginia Military Institute, McCain is making his case for finishing the job in Iraq. Though he has campaigned in primary states, McCain has not had much national visibility in recent months, and during this time polls have indicated a majority has begun to support a withdrawal from Iraq. McCain knows he is pushing a political boulder up the side of a mountain. He is asking voters not to agree with him but to trust his position and his leadership. With some luck and skill his new strategy just may help him. Read more...

Newt Gingrich and Spanish. Oh, boy! You really should not go there, Newt.

In his attack on bilingual education he spoke of “the language of living in the ghetto.” Then he kind of, sort of, apologized. After listening to him, you really do know what “ghetto Spanish” sounds like.

But here is the irony about Newt and his attack.

Gingrich apologizes in a bilingual TV announcement, on a bilingual website containing a Spanish translation of his biography … and still insists on condemning a bilingual approach to helping kids learn English.

So you do think we should be English-only, huh? Or maybe you do want that Hispanic vote after all, Newt! Where do you stand?