Campaign

Did anyone hear the whooping, hooting, and hollering coming from Hillary Clinton's campaign headquarters last Thursday when the immigration reform bill failed a procedural vote in the Senate? Sure, Clinton voted to proceed with the controversial compromise, but she couldn't have been happier to watch it die.

According to a Gallop poll released last week, Clinton now stands to benefit the most from the backlash against the Republicans and President Bush among Hispanic voters. The findings show that, by a nearly 3-1 margin, Hispanic voters are identifying themselves as Democrats or leaning Democratic — and the immigration debate is a major factor. Clinton can now appeal to this critical voting bloc but won't be dogged by a vote for final passage of an amnesty package for illegals, a bill so unpopular that protesting voters managed to jam the Senate phone system with their calls.  Read more...

In this video, Armstrong Williams explains why he thinks poor, middle class voters chose George W. Bush in 2004 and why they will be the deciding factor in 2008.

In this video, Karen Hanretty discusses an ongoing story in the presss about corruption within the California GOP.

David Hill, director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988, has a column posted on The Hill entitled "Overblown GOP apocalypse" in which he asserts the GOP isn't so bad off as the conservative bloggers and pundits would have you believe. Cases in point, he writes, are Florida and California.

"Consider Florida, where the newly elected Republican governor is already so popular that Floridians may forget about Jeb Bush. And the state legislature is dominated by the GOP. ... At the other end of the country, in California, you see a Republican Party that's bouncing back under the leadership of a suddenly stronger and more popular governor."

I've lived and worked in California (formerly as the communications director for the California Republican Party), and I can tell you things in the Golden State aren't all that rosy for the GOP. Consider that they lost Richard Pombo's congressional seat in a district where Republicans hold a registration advantage of 43%-37%. (In every other district, both congressional and legislative, in the state where Republicans hold at least 40% registration, they control the seat.)  Read more...

The most important item of information in the campaign-finance reports that have leaked so far is that Obama raised his $25 million from 100,000 donors while Hillary raised her $26 million from 50,000. And, to rub it in, Obama got 4,500 more donors the day after he announced his financial filing. At this stage of the game, the number of donors is more important than the amount of their donations. Nobody is really going to start spending media money massively this early, so the bank account sizes are really symbolic statements of a candidate's viability. The totals are to show off, not to spend.

But with twice as many donors, Obama can reload and add to his total much faster and more easily than can Hillary. Read more...

After he has spent more than five years meticulously building a second presidential campaign, this one meant to carry him over the finish line, it's hard to believe Sen. John McCain's candidacy has stumbled so badly. With money drying up and poll numbers falling, McCain has found ever since the midterm elections of 2006 that his support for the Iraq war is a ball and chain following him wherever he goes. As he drags it around it drags him down but doesn't seem to hold back Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney, both of whom supported the recent troop increase right along with McCain.

On Sunday, McCain began a public-relations offensive he hopes will help redefine him as the right leader on the country's most difficult issue. With a Washington Post editorial, a "60 Minutes" interview and an upcoming speech at the Virginia Military Institute, McCain is making his case for finishing the job in Iraq. Though he has campaigned in primary states, McCain has not had much national visibility in recent months, and during this time polls have indicated a majority has begun to support a withdrawal from Iraq. McCain knows he is pushing a political boulder up the side of a mountain. He is asking voters not to agree with him but to trust his position and his leadership. With some luck and skill his new strategy just may help him. Read more...

Newt Gingrich and Spanish. Oh, boy! You really should not go there, Newt.

In his attack on bilingual education he spoke of “the language of living in the ghetto.” Then he kind of, sort of, apologized. After listening to him, you really do know what “ghetto Spanish” sounds like.

But here is the irony about Newt and his attack.

Gingrich apologizes in a bilingual TV announcement, on a bilingual website containing a Spanish translation of his biography … and still insists on condemning a bilingual approach to helping kids learn English.

So you do think we should be English-only, huh? Or maybe you do want that Hispanic vote after all, Newt! Where do you stand?

What if it turns out we wasted all this time breathlessly following Rudy Giuliani’s meteoric rise to the front of the GOP primary pack, just to have former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) get in the race, knock Rudy’s celebrity socks off and turn America’s Mayor into just another also-ran?

It’s likely, but since that hasn’t happened, let’s ponder this: Giuliani’s support is soft and thin. Get any true Red Republican to talk about Rudy’s appeal and they weave caveats in and out of the conversation with lawyerly precision. Untested, three wives, socially liberal, terrible temper, the pre-911 tenure in New York — the list is long. When Giuliani campaigned in Iowa this week the reception was courteous but the crowds weren’t exactly crushing. He tried to tell Iowans that everybody is the same no matter where they hail from, but it was plain to see Rudy is no rock star to these heartland caucusers, at least not yet. That could prove dangerous in other states down the road. Read more...

And the winner is …

For a while, we thought it was Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). After all, she set a new world’s record for fundraising: $26 million in the first quarter of 2007. No doubt about it. With her proven ability to raise money like that, it looked like Hillary had the Democratic nomination all locked up.

But that was three days ago. Today, the big winner is … Barack Obama. The senator from Illinois has stunned the political world by reporting $25 million raised. Almost as much as Hillary’s $26 million total, but better than Hillary in several significant ways. Read more...

Now Mitt Romney lies about hunting.

The former Massachusetts governor said he had been a hunter for just about all his life. Almost immediately his staff reminded him he had only been hunting twice. Presumably Mr. Romney forgot about all the times he never hunted.

Meanwhile, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is now engaged in intensive preparation for his congressional testimony. Will he accuse his former chief of staff of lying? Or will he admit that he lied himself when he said he was not involved in the U.S. attorney firings?

Of course, Scooter Libby was convicted of lying, to the applause of the neoconservative community, which calls for pardon because, for them, putting one's hand on the Bible with an oath to God Almighty and lying is really OK, thank you.

After many tall tales about Iraq WMDs, a little perjury between friends is no big deal. Read more...