Employment issue could ‘throw the bums out’

Congress will soon be celebrating July 4. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its next monthly jobs report on July 6. Based on economic data for the last month, the July 6 report will be negative. It will either be a continuation of the depressing status quo of recent jobs reports, or there is a real chance of a negative report that shows a net loss that would set off a political firestorm.

First, in terms of political impact, do not believe anyone who tells you that the political impact will help or hurt either party in general. If the employment news remains negative, it will hurt the incumbents of both parties and help the challengers of both.

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In a "throw the bums out" election, independent and undecided voters turn against all of the bums. If I were the president and his staff, I would be seriously worried about this (trust me, I know, they are). If I were Speaker Boehner and his staff, I would be equally worried about this (trust me, they are).

At this moment I have privately begun circulating a significant proposal to senior Democrats. It is bipartisan. It would directly respond to the jobs issue. I will be very public very soon with what I am suggesting.

In the meantime, put July 4 on your calendar for purposes of recess, and put July 6 on your calendar for purposes of bad news on jobs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

My advice to any and all incumbents, which is at times sought by them and offered by me, would be that if they are home on recess, on the day a negative jobs report is released, they will need getaway cars to escape from angry constituents.