Congress will soon be celebrating July 4. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
will release its next monthly jobs report on July 6. Based on economic
data for the last month, the July 6 report will be negative. It will
either be a continuation of the depressing status quo of recent jobs
reports, or there is a real chance of a negative report that shows a net
loss that would set off a political firestorm.
First, in terms of political impact, do not believe anyone who tells you that the political impact will help or hurt either party in general. If the employment news remains negative, it will hurt the incumbents of both parties and help the challengers of both.
At this moment I have privately begun circulating a significant proposal to senior Democrats. It is bipartisan. It would directly respond to the jobs issue. I will be very public very soon with what I am suggesting.
In the meantime, put July 4 on your calendar for purposes of recess, and put July 6 on your calendar for purposes of bad news on jobs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
My advice to any and all incumbents, which is at times sought by them and offered by me, would be that if they are home on recess, on the day a negative jobs report is released, they will need getaway cars to escape from angry constituents.