Sarah Palin could win as a third party. And Howard Dean? Chuck Hagel? Ron Paul?

Hypothetically, if the economy does not improve dramatically for the vast majority of Americans in the coming year, what happens politically?

Obviously, the tidal wave of anti-Washington and anti-incumbent sentiment becomes wider and deeper. While this hurts Democrats more than Republicans, because Democrats control more seats, it really hurts incumbents of both parties and could trigger a break with the two-party system.

Increasingly, both conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats are disillusioned with their national party leaders in Washington. Similarly, independents are disillusioned with both parties in Washington. So what happens?

With Sarah Palin dropping hints that she just might consider running as a third party, the demographic politics look interesting if the public anger toward both parties and the economic crisis for most Americans continues.

I could easily envision a scenario where Palin, or Chuck Hagel, or Howard Dean, or Ron Paul, could make things very interesting if 2012 brings a third-, fourth- or fifth-party candidate.

I could certainly write scenarios where Palin, Hagel or Dean could win, or someone similar to them.

Of course, the economy may improve a great deal, which negates the third-party scenario.

Then again, the economy could suffer a double-dip recession, not the most likely outcome, but a possible outcome, in which all hell breaks loose politically.

So I put this proposition before the house: The antipathy toward Washington, toward insiders, toward incumbents, toward both parties is so deep and so wide from the left, right and independents that if the economy does not improve for most Americans and the public anger becomes even worse, we might have the first major challenge to the two-party system since Ross Perot.