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Prospects Dimming for Healthcare Reform
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07/22/09 06:24 AM ET
As President Obama goes before the nation to urge quick passage of an overhaul for our healthcare system, the economic picture complicating party unity on health reform has darkened considerably in less than a week.
First there was the assessment of Doug Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), that the current plans would not only fail to cut healthcare costs but would actually grow them. That the bills aren't revenue-neutral was bad news enough, but that they would expand healthcare costs was too much — centrist and conservative Democrats went running for the hills.
Then the news came that the administration was hiding its gloomier budget forecasts, revised numbers that won't show the sunny skies the administration's earlier reports had predicted. A midsummer update, due in July, has been put off until the middle of August when Congress is home, according to The Associated Press.
The new numbers could spell doom for the healthcare reform push Obama and Democrats are making in Congress, with forecasts for higher unemployment and deficits. On top of the CBO score, that would be a bridge too far, so better to punt. Initial estimates for growth between 2001-2013 were a wildly unrealistic 4 percent — what will the revised figures show? Will the Obama administration still rely on fudgy federal government math that will catch up to it sooner rather than later?
Last week a defiant Obama stood in shirtsleeves to take on Republicans, who these days are the least of his worries. He sounded happy to own the economy, declaring: "That's fine. Give it to me."
And give it him they will. As Obama fends off criticism and bad reviews of the stimulus program from Republicans and Democrats alike, his administration should stop making promises it cannot keep, like when it suggested a stimulus program could keep unemployment from going higher than 8.5 percent. Recall that in mid-June the administration rolled out the stimulus again and promised it would save or create 600,000 jobs in the next 100 days, which by my count comes up on Sept. 16.
No matter the happy talk, we are soon set to surpass 10 percent unemployment and jobs aren't likely to return until the very end of 2010, if not 2011. What growth we will see then doesn't promise to be robust, just likely better than what we have now. Governments in states across the country are broke and more job loss will mean strain on their budgets from decreased revenues as well as the federal government.
Whether the Democrats pass healthcare reform or not, the economic picture — as well as our government's fiscal health — stands to get far worse in the short term. Let's hope President Obama addresses it soon.
IS IT RISKIER FOR OBAMA & DEMOCRATS TO PASS HEALTHCARE REFORM OR KILL IT? Ask A.B. returns Tuesday, July 28. Please join my weekly video Q&A by sending your questions and comments to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Thank you.
First there was the assessment of Doug Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), that the current plans would not only fail to cut healthcare costs but would actually grow them. That the bills aren't revenue-neutral was bad news enough, but that they would expand healthcare costs was too much — centrist and conservative Democrats went running for the hills.
Then the news came that the administration was hiding its gloomier budget forecasts, revised numbers that won't show the sunny skies the administration's earlier reports had predicted. A midsummer update, due in July, has been put off until the middle of August when Congress is home, according to The Associated Press.
The new numbers could spell doom for the healthcare reform push Obama and Democrats are making in Congress, with forecasts for higher unemployment and deficits. On top of the CBO score, that would be a bridge too far, so better to punt. Initial estimates for growth between 2001-2013 were a wildly unrealistic 4 percent — what will the revised figures show? Will the Obama administration still rely on fudgy federal government math that will catch up to it sooner rather than later?
Last week a defiant Obama stood in shirtsleeves to take on Republicans, who these days are the least of his worries. He sounded happy to own the economy, declaring: "That's fine. Give it to me."
And give it him they will. As Obama fends off criticism and bad reviews of the stimulus program from Republicans and Democrats alike, his administration should stop making promises it cannot keep, like when it suggested a stimulus program could keep unemployment from going higher than 8.5 percent. Recall that in mid-June the administration rolled out the stimulus again and promised it would save or create 600,000 jobs in the next 100 days, which by my count comes up on Sept. 16.
No matter the happy talk, we are soon set to surpass 10 percent unemployment and jobs aren't likely to return until the very end of 2010, if not 2011. What growth we will see then doesn't promise to be robust, just likely better than what we have now. Governments in states across the country are broke and more job loss will mean strain on their budgets from decreased revenues as well as the federal government.
Whether the Democrats pass healthcare reform or not, the economic picture — as well as our government's fiscal health — stands to get far worse in the short term. Let's hope President Obama addresses it soon.
IS IT RISKIER FOR OBAMA & DEMOCRATS TO PASS HEALTHCARE REFORM OR KILL IT? Ask A.B. returns Tuesday, July 28. Please join my weekly video Q&A by sending your questions and comments to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Thank you.
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