He reckons he’s got the support of the veto-holding Permanent Five (P5) on the Security Council — the United States, United Kingdom, France, China and Russia. It’s up to the 15-member council to decide on appointing the secretary-general, which they do in time-honored non-transparent fashion: behind closed doors.
But it’s the “big five” who really decide, and it’s highly unlikely a year before the end of Ban’s first term that they would have the energy to go through the motions to find a more dynamic candidate. Unfortunately for the institution, they prefer somebody more secretary than general. Visionaries need not apply. Boutros Boutros-Ghali of Egypt was denied a second term because he was too outspoken and ran afoul of the U.S. His successor, Kofi Annan, only began kicking up rough about the “illegal” Iraq war a year after the invasion and halfway through his second term when he had nothing to lose.
So the inevitable second term of Ban Ki-moon looms. I’m sorry but the world will greet his next five years in office with a massive shrug of indifference.