‘When I’m 64’ — History and the Taylor Swift happy dance

Manufacturing in U.K. Unexpectedly Plunges as Brown Sees `Fragile' Economy — Bloomberg headline today

Cities in the east such as Newark and Baltimore now have drug-dealing as their principal commercial activity — Simon Heffer, Telegraph, U.K.

If all goes as planned I turn 64 this year, which should be of interest for two reasons: First, 40 million other Americans — war babies — will turn 64 at the same time and another 40 million shortly after. Second, as ancient Roman and Chinese historians understood, historic regimes go to pieces in the 60th year and end around the 64th year. And if the Eliot Wave currency theory holds true, which has the dollar ending its creative arc in the year 2011, that would likely include us.

This theme has been advanced by William Strauss and Neil Howe and IMO some of their observations were good, some not so. Unfortunately, the clever William Strauss has passed away (at age 60). But the cyclical nature of history has formidable footings in other writings. Herbert J. Muller writes in The Uses of the Past that Arnold Toynbee discovered C.G. Jung and Oswald Spengler well into the middle of his world history and came to understand the cycles better. These mature insights are still available.

The previous American cycle began at Appomattox in 1865. Count forward 60 years to 1925 when The Great Gatsby was published, followed quickly by The Sun Also Rises. Hemingway and Fitzgerald filled young hearts with disillusioned desire, sending them to the Jardin des Tuileries to catch pigeons for breakfast and do absinthe into the night at Les Deux Magots. Four years later — the 64th year, the economy crashed.

Look at Victoria, who went to the throne in 1837, and left in 1901, 64 years. At her Diamond Jubilee in 1897, 60 years, the smell of blood was in the water as Germans arrived at the celebration with bigger ships, better steel, more proletariat — the better to make big war machines to follow. Robert Graves chronicled growing up then with this good title: Good-bye to All That.

Or the Russians, who did so poorly last week at the Olympics. But they are better off, as they’ve gone back to Jesus. In 1922, 10 days that shook the world began the USSR. Plus 60 comes to 1982 and the Miracle on Ice had already occurred, when the CCCP hockey team fell to a handful of American schoolboys in 1980. The USSR. lasted a little longer, 1922 to 1989, 67 years, but the last few of that was mush.

Our own post-war world began in 1946 and hit 60 in 2006. Then came the first whack to the economy, but by no means brought the end of things. Too early for that. Our period is at 64 now, like the 40 million my age. So it should be interesting.

Good news is that the People’s Republic of China turned 60 last year. They’ll start falling apart soon, and Japan already is. (As goes Toyota, so goes ...) So forget the Pacific Century. But I’m looking forward to the next part because things don’t really end, they just change and in my observation in the long sequence of cycles they tend to alternate, moving outward and then back inward. Like the Russians are doing.

And anyway, the next is always better than last, at least for the young. Considering that the “greatest generation” which fought in World War II was only about 9 in 1929 when that world broke, it will be the joyous high-schoolers and their younger brothers and sisters doing the Taylor Swift happy dance today who will traverse the ending — which has not even arrived yet — and get us back again to the beginning.

Visit Mr. Quigley's website at http://quigleyblog.blogspot.com.