My hope is that an agreement is reached, and my guess as I write this Monday morning is the odds are 50-50.
The merits are not equally divided. It is Senate Republicans' abuse of filibusters that is destroying the Senate and bringing Washington even further into ill repute with voters, and it is Reid trying to restore the Senate to functionality and credibility with the nation.
It is Reid's moment and McConnell's choice. McConnell has the choice of making a deal with Reid that would be reasonable and fair, but if McConnell does not make this choice, Reid has the votes to make the change and should, and will, use them.