On the Obama front: The more President Obama talks and opines and appears to be continuing his campaigning without action, the more voters just tune him out. There was something discordant about Obama discussing war and peace with Jay Leno.

There is something other-worldly about Obama giving grand speeches without the great battles and without the nuts and bolts of working to get things done in Washington. The danger for Obama is not that his numbers go down, it is that voters just stop listening to him.

Obama may be the least existential politician in my lifetime. He needs to be more existential, meaning he needs actions that give substance to his words. Cruz and Paul have a similar problem. They talk too much, say the wrong things, fall far out of the mainstream of America, and are too existential.

The more they do, the more unpopular they become outside the right wing cults. The more Christie attacks them, the stronger Christie becomes. Oh my, the battle between Christie and the right will be nasty before it is done.

The most interesting development ignored by the political media is the continuing rise of Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenOvernight Finance: Lawmakers grill Equifax chief over hack | Wells Fargo CEO defends bank's progress | Trump jokes Puerto Rico threw budget 'out of whack' | Mortgage tax fight tests industry clout Michelle Obama is exactly who the Democrats need to win big in 2020 Wells Fargo chief defends bank's progress in tense Senate hearing MORE (D-Mass.). One recent poll ranked "hot" (in other words hotly supported) national leaders. Christie came in first. Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonChris Murphy’s profile rises with gun tragedies DNC, RNC step up cyber protections Gun proposal picks up GOP support MORE came in second. Warren came in a strong and surprising third.

Polls are starting to show that if Clinton does not run in 2016, Elizabeth Warren could fast become the new Democratic front-runner. That's good news for the right, sort of. 

Chris Matthews has now proclaimed that Paul will be the GOP nominee in 2016. To add clout to his call, Matthews said something like "And I am in this business!!" For those of you who believe that Chris is the fountain of wisdom, go the Vegas and put your Paul bets on the table. 

But be warned: I will be on the other side of the bet.