On the Obama front: The more President Obama talks and opines and appears to be continuing his campaigning without action, the more voters just tune him out. There was something discordant about Obama discussing war and peace with Jay Leno.

There is something other-worldly about Obama giving grand speeches without the great battles and without the nuts and bolts of working to get things done in Washington. The danger for Obama is not that his numbers go down, it is that voters just stop listening to him.

Obama may be the least existential politician in my lifetime. He needs to be more existential, meaning he needs actions that give substance to his words. Cruz and Paul have a similar problem. They talk too much, say the wrong things, fall far out of the mainstream of America, and are too existential.

The more they do, the more unpopular they become outside the right wing cults. The more Christie attacks them, the stronger Christie becomes. Oh my, the battle between Christie and the right will be nasty before it is done.

The most interesting development ignored by the political media is the continuing rise of Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenWarren: Trump is a 'racist bully' Poll: Oprah would outperform Warren, Harris against Trump in California Democrats continue to dismiss positive impacts of tax reform MORE (D-Mass.). One recent poll ranked "hot" (in other words hotly supported) national leaders. Christie came in first. Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonIntel Dem decries White House 'gag order' after Bannon testimony 'Total free-for-all' as Bannon clashes with Intel members Mellman: On Political Authenticity (Part 2) MORE came in second. Warren came in a strong and surprising third.

Polls are starting to show that if Clinton does not run in 2016, Elizabeth Warren could fast become the new Democratic front-runner. That's good news for the right, sort of. 

Chris Matthews has now proclaimed that Paul will be the GOP nominee in 2016. To add clout to his call, Matthews said something like "And I am in this business!!" For those of you who believe that Chris is the fountain of wisdom, go the Vegas and put your Paul bets on the table. 

But be warned: I will be on the other side of the bet.