Sometimes a man, a mission and a moment come together. The issue is the
deficit. The moment is now. The man is Grover Norquist. The mission is
avoiding America falling over the fiscal cliff and possibly taking down
the world economy. A failure would be a disaster for Americans and yet
another disaster for the Republican Party, which will be blamed for the
crash that a failure to agree would cause. Republicans are terrified by
the prospect of far-right primaries against them. Grover Norquist, who
threatens such primaries, has become the Matt Drudge of tax policy, a
man of enormous and powerful influence over Republicans and therefore
the national debate.
In the same way that Matt Drudge stands as a colossus of influence over virtually all media, with "Drudge is running it" among the most coveted and feared words in the media, Grover Norquist stands as a colossus of influence over the tax policy of the United States of America, with Grover's words "you will face a primary" pored over by politicians acting like Talmudic scholars to determine "What will Grover accept?”
In the current situation, a fair and likely outcome will be a tax increase for wealthy Americans with annual incomes over $500,000. A similar plan might be adopted for Medicare premiums that would only affect very wealthy Americans, which would give Republicans part of a loaf without affecting poor and middle-income seniors.
But let’s be crystal-clear about thing. On the issue of taxes there were clear differences between the presidential candidates. Barack Obama won. Mitt Romney lost. Paul Krugman won. Grover Norquist lost. There is a mandate regarding taxes and it belongs to President Obama, Democrats and liberals. Not Speaker Boehner, Republicans, conservatives or Grover Norquist.
It is possible that Grover Norquist's influence over Republicans is so dominant, and the GOP fear of rightist primaries is so great, that Republicans will violate the voters’ mandate and common sense, and if they do …
The fiscal cliff will create a crash. The GOP will be severely blamed by a majority of voters for this crash. While Mr. Norquist will be sipping champagne in triumph, his party will be a losing minority party until President Hillary Rodham Clinton concludes her second term in January 2025.