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The Dems' (mis)reading of the off-year elections

By A.B. Stoddard - 11/06/09 02:46 PM ET

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told us all we needed to know this week about the divide that threatens the Democratic Party's majorities in next year's midterm elections.

"We got walloped," said Warner, a former governor of Virginia, about Democrats losing both gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, in his home state by 17 points.

"From my perspective, we won," said Pelosi, pleased that she picked up two Democratic House members in special elections in California and New York that will add two votes to her slim margin for a pending healthcare reform vote in the House.

As I explained in my column this week, the Democrats cannot waste too much time enjoying the GOP loss in NY-23; they have their own civil war to deal with. Liberals are pushing an aggressive agenda in hopes of firing up their base while centrists and conservatives are newly skeptical about a government healthcare program, cap-and-trade and any policy priorities that add to the deficit or fail to address joblessness.

While voices on the left like Daily Kos's Markos Moulitsas warn "if you abandon Democratic principles in a bid for unnecessary 'bipartisanship,' you will lose votes," Democrats on the right of the party see that the independents President Barack Obama won last year broke 2-to-1 for Republicans in both New Jersey and Virginia.

The White House appears to have awoken from its morning-after denial and told NBC News late Wednesday that the administration will nationalize the 2010 elections and put the president in the campaign spotlight to avoid a repeat of this year's elections, for which the party's base clearly stayed home.

The question is now: What will Obama be talking about on the trail next year? Will it be the huge reforms his party tackled in Congress, or its record on the economy? Democrats need to decide soon just what they will be selling the electorate next year.



WHAT SHOULD OBAMA DO TO ADDRESS 10 PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT? Ask A.B. returns Tuesday, Nov. 10. Please join my weekly video Q&A by sending your questions and comments to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Thank you.

Source:
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/national-party-news/66753-the-dems-misreading-of-the-off-year-elections
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Comments (25)

obama won independents by 2 points in nj and lost them in va… and an exit poll showed that 55% in va and 60% in nj said their vote for governor was not a vote for or against the presidentBY dj spellchecka on 11/06/2009 at 16:55
The Obama administration's mishandling of the money supply by increasing it at a rate of 125% has some very ominous risks associated with it. There are too many variables to even keep track of let alone exercise control over.BY Farnsworth on 11/06/2009 at 18:54
The best thing Mr. Obama can do is to keep running his mad tea party. How about at least one new Marxist-I-Hate-America idea each day? Another job killing wealth redistributing plan each week?The President and his pals keep showing the nation what a bunch of zanny, fun guys they are. If they keep this up — and I hope they do —they will be nothing but a bad memory after 2010BY Garret  on 11/06/2009 at 23:40
To sell something to the public Obama will have to have a product to pitch. What will that product be? Failed TARP, failed Cash-For-Clunkers (Cost to taxpayers $24,000 per vehicle, then declining auto sales), domestic war on terror (12 killed by Islamic radical at Ft. Hood), failure to finish border fence (7 miles completed, construction stopped), bailouts of Chrysler and GM with no hope of getting the 84 billion back, failure to live up to campaign promises on ethics and transparency by stocking his cabinet with lobbyists, failure to live up to campaign promise on ethics by stocking his administration with Communists and tax cheats? What exactly can Obama sell the American public since he has nothing to sell which even rises to the political equivalent of a TV late night commercial selling Slap Chops? In the meantime unemployment will continue to rise just like it did under Roosevelt while Obama offers meaningless political bromides like "those numbers are sobering." No, President Obama, those numbers will only be sobering when you reap the political fall out and fail to return to office for a second chance at destroying America.BY Robert Rosencrans on 11/07/2009 at 07:49
I made a mistake in that previous posting. The actual number of border fence miles completed is 34 miles out of 700 miles. 700 miles minuses 34 miles leaves 666 miles left to finish. Go figure.BY Robert Rosencrans on 11/07/2009 at 08:45
"The Obama administration's mishandling of the money supply by increasing it at a rate of 125% has some very ominous risks associated with it. There are too many variables to even keep track of let alone exercise control over."And what was it before Obama took over the Presidency?Bush stopped reporting M3 in 2006 when He was printing 40% Above reasonable and Customary. The M3 report shows how much money the federal reserve is printing.BY Donaldd on 11/07/2009 at 12:13
always amazing to see that madcap robert rosencrans still as lunatic as ever. Thanks, bob, for keeping the universe on an even keel.BY Michael on 11/07/2009 at 14:37
Why does anyone waste their time reading pundit blogs that talk in circles and only end up right back where they started? "Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told us all we needed to know this week about the divide that threatens the Democratic Party's majorities in next year's midterm elections.Are you kidding me? Way to look for that storyline, Stoddard. Could it be that Pelosi was talking about the House election, being that she is SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE. Could it be that Warner was talking about getting walloped in the Virginia elections because (OMFG) he's from Virginia?The whole "Democrats are in trouble" thing further proves my own personal biased against the media, founded on many pundits' sensationalism and a desperate addiction to creating storylines by clumsily correlating completely unrelated things, in this case two quotes from two different people taken entirely out of context. In 2008 there were at least 20 competitive elections between the Presidential, Senate, House, and Governors races, of which Democrats won decidedly. 20 races on the national level are a pretty good number to gauge where the country is politically. This year they lost 2 out of 3 competitive races (admittedly, the VA gov. race was a massive blowout) but based almost entirely on local issues. 3 races are NOT a big enough "sample size" to see where the parties stand. Instead, look at party approval/positive negative ratings, Obama's approval ratings, historical trends and turnout. These mean a whole lot more for next year's elections than 3 isolated races. Remember: 1 race featured a freakish emergence of a third-party candidate(NY-23), one involved a tainted, unpopular incumbent (NJ), and the other involved a weak Democratic candidate who arguably made every possible wrong move (guess). They can't really be correlated. They're too different. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/independent-voters-and-empty.html I encourage everyone to read this post and know that there are bloggers and pundits out there who actually put thought into what they post.BY Eric on 11/07/2009 at 16:27
Oh p.s., Garrett knows that 2010 isn't a presidential election, right?BY Eric on 11/07/2009 at 16:29
Michael looks like a typical liberal. Engage in a personal attack yet offer nothing of intelligence. Doesn't that make you the wacko Mike?BY Mr. Beavers on 11/07/2009 at 16:49

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