Perry takes the lead at Intrade

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) has taken the lead at Intrade, “The World’s Leading Prediction Market,” which gives him a 35 percent chance to be Republican presidential nominee in 2012. Mitt Romney comes in second with a 27.8 percent chance. Michele Bachmann has a 9 percent chance.

Nate Silver comments on his FiveThirtyEight blog at The New York Times:

“Are the bettors being sensible or getting ahead of themselves? Although this is all fun and games as compared to the debt-ceiling debate, a quick overview of the state of play is in order.

“An average of the seven most recent polls of Republican voters (the six contained in the Real Clear Politics average plus the Economist / YouGov poll) finds Mr. Romney with the lead, with an average of 22 percent of the vote. After that, there’s essentially a four-way tie between Ms. Bachmann (13 percent), Sarah Palin (13 percent), Mr. Perry (12 percent) and Rudolph W. Giuliani (11 percent in the polls in which he is included). Herman Cain’s momentum appears to have faded, while Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty are now often polling in the low rather than the high single digits.”

Based on Gallup numbers, Perry is recognized by only slightly more than half of Republican voters, writes Silver. Of those who recognize his name, 21 percent list him as their first choice, just slightly behind Romney at 25 percent.