When the rooster crows on Super Wednesday, the insider establishment
that runs the GOP will lay down the law to Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul and all true conservatives: It is time to unite behind the
candidate of the establishment that runs the party, which does not
include Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Donald
Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain or true conservatives of any kind.
The voting on Super Tuesday will determine whether this insider GOP establishment will have enough brute clout to force opponents of Mitt Romney out of the race beginning in earnest on Super Wednesday, or whether the the process must continue. The pressure to withdraw will be excruciating. The private inducements to drop out will be enormous. The threats against candidates refusing to drop out will be secret, but savage.
The Republicans nominate candidates such as George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush (who ran as a moderate compassionate conservative and not a movement conservative) and John McCain. They do not nominate the most conservative candidates. They nominate the most insider candidates who do the best job of pretending to be conservative, just enough to humor and fend off the real conservatives.
My best guess is that Romney wins Ohio by a slight margin, but with Ohio so close, when a few thousand votes could be the difference, it is pointless to predict. The issue is this: The establishment wants Romney in and everyone else out. The question is this: Will modest Romney margins be enough to do the job of forcing others out beginning Super Wednesday, or will the battle continue?
Make no mistake:
1. In the GOP, the insider, banking, Wall Street and K Street establishment is the boss. Period.
2. True conservatives have been humiliated in this primary season because they began without a credible conservative presidential candidate and will likely end being force-fed Mitt Romney, whom most of them privately consider a phony (which he is) who will betray them if elected (which he will).
3. This process of an insincere Romney pretending he is farther to the right than he is, to humor the right that he will ultimately betray, has given Obama a huge advantage.
To the political center, Romney looks too far to the right; to the political right, he looks too insincere; and to everyone else, he’s simply too elitist. And so:
Obama has taken the lead and is now the favorite. Republican participation lags and the rightist base is depressed.
4. This has given Democrats a huge brand advantage and a major boost in Senate and House elections. This scares the hell out of the GOP establishment. This is why party insiders will apply maximum pressure to end the GOP contest ASAP, if they can get away with it, which depends on exact numbers on Super Tuesday.
Will conservatives have the will to fight on, or will they surrender to the hostile takeover of their conscience by the candidate they deplore, organized by the wing of the party they detest? And if the right surrenders in the primaries, what will Ron Paul do in the general election?