Ignore all pundits (including me) about election predictions

Ernest Hemingway advised writers to write one true sentence, and the true sentence about the 2012 campaign is this: After one of the worst six-week periods in modern presidential campaign history, President Obama is even with to slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in most polls. Obama has had bad political news, weak economic news, and his campaign has not yet found it voice — but Obama is still even to slightly ahead. Ignore anyone who tells you that either candidate is going to win or lose.

I would argue that it is (slightly) bullish for Obama that despite so much bad news he is even to ahead, and (slightly) bearish for Romney that despite so much news that should be good for him he is even to behind.

Grand prognostications about the election results are a misapplication of bandwidth with far more interesting and important matters to discuss, notably what the five conservative gentlemen on the Supreme Court will do, or not do, momentarily.

Neither candidate should be planning a redecoration of the White House for January 2013 at this time.

For now, the fact that Obama has had such a bad six weeks yet remains even to slightly ahead in most polls is the most interesting true sentence in American politics today, worthy of much more discussion from the pundit herd than it is receiving today.

---