South Carolina's Republican presidential primary vote on Saturday produced the expected Trump victory and two surprises: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush exited the race after a less-than-10 percent vote; he left gracefully. The other surprise was Sen. Marco RubioMarco RubioA guide to the committees: Senate Schumer: GOP will break from Trump within months GOP loses top Senate contenders MORE's (Fla.) win over Sen. Ted CruzTed CruzA guide to the committees: Senate Trump wants to cut red tape? He should start with the CFPB. Why President Trump should choose Maureen Ohlhausen to lead the FTC MORE (Texas). Serious people now believe that Cruz can't win the Republican nomination.
The result was that Cruz's odds of contention for the nomination have been greatly lessened. His carefully constructed scenario of winning South Carolina and carrying that win into the March Southern primaries is done. Cruz expected big wins because most of the South resembles South Carolina politically. Here enters Donald TrumpDonald TrumpPoll: Majority of Americans fear US will become involved in another major war Ellison holds edge in DNC race WH adviser Stephen Miller: 'Nothing wrong' with Trump travel order MORE. He won South Carolina and he can be expected to do well in the SEC primary (nicknamed after the Southern-based college football conference). Cruz will win the Texas primary, but it is not winner-take-all.
Every Republican caucus or primary between now and March 12 allocates delegates proportionally. Thus, even if he sweeps Texas, Cruz will not get a large delegate win; he will have to share the 155 delegate pot with Trump and Rubio proportionately. The real delegate pots start on March 15 when Florida votes winner-take-all for 99 delegates along with other winner-take-all states such as Illinois (69 delegates), Missouri (52) and Ohio (66), followed by Arizona (58) on March 22, Pennsylvania (71) on April 16 and the greatest delegate pot of all, California with 172 delegates on June 7.
Then again, some of the winner-take-all-states are in reality winner-take-congressional district. Considering that Rubio did in fact beat Trump in two South Carolina counties he will undoubtedly win some of those key congressional districts; if he can beat Trump in counties, he can defeat Cruz.
Cruz, rigid ultra-conservative son of a Cuban-refugee-turned-evangelical-Protestant-pastor is a 10 to one shot in any state that is more Catholic than evangelical and most major states are more Catholic than evangelical. Moreover, they are more industrial than agricultural, more middle-of-the-road than SEC primary states.
Losing South Carolina diminishes Cruz's chance at winning the Republican nomination. Among all South Carolinian Republican voters, the exit polls tell us that on electability, Rubio received 49 percent support while Cruz was far back with 21 percent and Trump was behind Cruz with 18 percent.
Of import is how Ohio Gov. John Kasich (fifth in South Carolina with 7.6 percent) plans to continue. Ohio's primary with 66 delegates on March 15 is why he stays in. He will win what used to be called a "favorite son" candidacy. That will block Trump. Blocking Trump is crucial for Rubio's path to the convention in Cleveland. Like a football fullback, Kasich can block Trump long enough for the "establishment" to marshal its forces to push Trump into a political ditch.
Neither Trump nor Cruz have any chance of broadening the number of states previous Republican nominee Mitt Romney carried in 2012. If so, why allow them to carry the GOP banner into November for a predictable loss when Hillary ClintonHillary Rodham ClintonEllison holds edge in DNC race Democrats face fierce urgency of 2018 FEC commissioner: 'I will not be silenced' MORE is being investigated by the FBI? Political observers say Kasich's Ohio is vital to victory. So Kasich will stay in until Ohio so he can control 66 delegates, without which Trump would have a difficult time getting to the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
Trump has yet to demonstrate much Republican voter support above the 32.5 percent he received in South Carolina. The nomination cannot be won with 32.5 percent. Two of three votes against Trump is 67 percent "no" on Trump. He appears to have possibly capped out at one-third of GOP votes. In coming days, we can expect to see a deluge of endorsements (e.g., U.S. Sen. Dean HellerDean HellerA guide to the committees: Senate Planned Parenthood targets GOP lawmakers amid ObamaCare protests Overnight Finance: Fed chief tries to stay above partisan fray | Bill would eliminate consumer agency | Trump signs repeal of SEC rule on foreign payments MORE in Nevada, who just endorsed Rubio) and huge contributions to Rubio's campaign.
The November election will be won by the candidate that receives a majority of the white Catholic vote. It's been that way since the 1952 Eisenhower election. Marco Rubio is Catholic, Hispanic and 44 years old. Can any GOP or Democrat Presidential candidate match those six-decade-long winning political "qualifications"?
Contreras formerly wrote for the New American News Service of The New York Times Syndicate.