Presidential Campaign

Presidential Campaign

Hillary Clinton: Not Polarizing and Highly Electable

You didn't misread that headline. It is contrary to all current conventional wisdom.

It is also true — supported not only by recent national polling data but by most polls all year long.

According to the latest Oct. 4 Washington Post/ABC News national poll of all voters from all parts of the country, Hillary Clinton's "polarization" rate (i.e., the percentage of people who would "definitely" not vote for her, no matter what — also called the "rejection rate") is 41 percent. That is statistically identical (within the margin of error) to Barack Obama (39 percent) and John Edwards (43 percent).

Top Down

Let's suppose it’s October 2009, and let's suppose the election race had a front-runner. What would all the political reporters be doing? We'd all be dusting off Yogi Berra's cliche that "it ain't over till it's over" and writing that it wasn't over yet. And pondering the various ways things could turn around.

Granted, part of that would be our desperate effort to keep up the suspense so people cared about what we were covering, but this would also have the advantage of being true. There so many ways to blow a lead.

Also-Rans Also Winning

Sorry to continuously rag on the big boys, but once again the also-rans won the GOP debate last night. Republican Reps. Ron Paul of Texas, Duncan Hunter of California and Tom Tancredo of Colorado, along with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, provided most of the night's best moments.

Paul was the first to declare he won't support the Republican nominee if that person won't end the war and restore credibility on spending control. Tancredo then did the same, saying that standing on principle is great but the party should have done more of it in the majority. "Stop pandering," he chided, twice.

Dick Morris and the Hate-Hillary Republicans

To understand the full magnitude of the catastrophic landslide that Republicans may suffer and Democrats may not deserve, read the last 50 postings of anti-Hillary operative Dick Morris on The Hill's Pundits Blog.

Most recently Mr. Morris predicted that Hillary will cause a stock market crash. No doubt within weeks he will suggest that Hillary will lead to the destruction of New York from mushroom clouds, that if Hillary is elected the Hale-Bopp comet will return and destroy life on earth, and he'll probably soon assert that Hillary has badbreath and body odor problems.

Impatience with the Impotent

Those of you who are my regular readers will recognize one of my recurring themes. Both of you know how I harp on the failure of congressional Democrats to deliver on their election promises to rein in the president.

Just read today’s papers. The Washington Post reports that the Democratic Senate leader has told lobbyists the astoundingly rich executives of private equity firms don’t have to worry. Congress is not going to pass the legislation that would tax their hundreds of millions in income at the same rate as the rest of us.


Yes, FrontRunneritis is a terrible disease. Lyndon Johnson had it. Ed Muskie had it. Howard Dean had it. Candidates for all levels of office catch it. The question this year is, do Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton have it or are they in danger of catching it with the kinds of campaigns they are running?

Fred is Fading

Scott Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll catalogues a candidacy in trouble as it chronicles Fred Thompson’s descent over the past two weeks in the polls as his candidacy increasingly comes to resemble the old U.S. Vanguard rocket, which would go three feet up in the air before crashing back down on the launching pad (circa 1958).

Rasmussen, who uses a tight screen to identify core Republican primary voters, has always had Thompson higher than any of the other polling organizations. These other firms, like Gallup, use a looser screen, which may let in more people who are not definitely going to vote in GOP primaries.

Hillary Will Trigger Stock Crash

I give political analysis, not financial advice. But sometimes, the two closely merge. So here’s what I think: Hillary Clinton will cause the stock market to crash as her likely election as president approaches.

Hillary says she wants to raise the capital gains tax. Now it's 15 percent. She might hike it to 30 percent, or she might eliminate it altogether and tax profits from sales of stock or houses as ordinary income at 40 percent.

Presidential Missteps

Note to Fred Thompson: It isn't always a good thing to just tell it like it is.

I have to agree with Ron Christie today. I think the lapel-pin flap now consuming Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is much more of a problem than he realizes, and could dog him for a long time. He pretty much said he had to express his patriotism in other ways and took his flag pin off because he saw others acting unpatriotic. I wonder who that is going to fly with.

Conservatives Should Stay With the GOP

A group of social conservatives recently made headlines by suggesting they might abandon the GOP and run a third-party candidate for president if former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were nominated by the Republicans. Giuliani’s pro-choice views make him anathema for many social conservatives, and these leaders have been expressing the frustration of many who believe they do not have a natural candidate in the GOP field.

This course is a profoundly bad idea for the very cause that these conservatives are trying to advance. Let’s mention five reasons why this would set back the pro-life cause for years to come.