Presidential Campaign

Presidential Campaign

You Don't Expect a Serious Third-Party Candidate

It's difficult to be sure what the answer to a single question means. Most questions require follow ups. More than three quarters (77%-33%) of those who answered our Quick Poll! question — Will there be a serious third-party candidate in the presidential election? — said no. But does that express doubt that there will be any third party candidate or merely that he or she will not be a serious contender? Would New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg be serious? He certainly has serious money. Perhaps that's moot, as he seems unlikely to run. But what if a social conservative candidate were to enter the race as an independent in the event that Rudy Giuliani got the nod from Republicans? Would that candidate be serious? From the Republican nominee's point of view he'd probably be more serious than Bloomberg even though he wouldn't have much by way of a campaign war chest.
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Al Gore for President

As these words are written the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize has been chosen but not yet announced and for purposes of the future of America the great and inconvenient truth is that this does not matter.

America does not need another prize, we need another president.

Americans deserve a president who aspires not merely to wield power but to use the office of the presidency as the center of action to lift our land to the greatness that was bestowed to us by Americans who came before us.

My hope is that Al Gore is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. He deserves it, and it would be a great moment for America and a great statement about the future of the earth.
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Hillary Clinton: Not Polarizing and Highly Electable

You didn't misread that headline. It is contrary to all current conventional wisdom.

It is also true — supported not only by recent national polling data but by most polls all year long.

According to the latest Oct. 4 Washington Post/ABC News national poll of all voters from all parts of the country, Hillary Clinton's "polarization" rate (i.e., the percentage of people who would "definitely" not vote for her, no matter what — also called the "rejection rate") is 41 percent. That is statistically identical (within the margin of error) to Barack Obama (39 percent) and John Edwards (43 percent).
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Top Down

Let's suppose it’s October 2009, and let's suppose the election race had a front-runner. What would all the political reporters be doing? We'd all be dusting off Yogi Berra's cliche that "it ain't over till it's over" and writing that it wasn't over yet. And pondering the various ways things could turn around.

Granted, part of that would be our desperate effort to keep up the suspense so people cared about what we were covering, but this would also have the advantage of being true. There so many ways to blow a lead.
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Also-Rans Also Winning

Sorry to continuously rag on the big boys, but once again the also-rans won the GOP debate last night. Republican Reps. Ron Paul of Texas, Duncan Hunter of California and Tom Tancredo of Colorado, along with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, provided most of the night's best moments.

Paul was the first to declare he won't support the Republican nominee if that person won't end the war and restore credibility on spending control. Tancredo then did the same, saying that standing on principle is great but the party should have done more of it in the majority. "Stop pandering," he chided, twice.
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Dick Morris and the Hate-Hillary Republicans

To understand the full magnitude of the catastrophic landslide that Republicans may suffer and Democrats may not deserve, read the last 50 postings of anti-Hillary operative Dick Morris on The Hill's Pundits Blog.

Most recently Mr. Morris predicted that Hillary will cause a stock market crash. No doubt within weeks he will suggest that Hillary will lead to the destruction of New York from mushroom clouds, that if Hillary is elected the Hale-Bopp comet will return and destroy life on earth, and he'll probably soon assert that Hillary has badbreath and body odor problems.
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Impatience with the Impotent

Those of you who are my regular readers will recognize one of my recurring themes. Both of you know how I harp on the failure of congressional Democrats to deliver on their election promises to rein in the president.

Just read today’s papers. The Washington Post reports that the Democratic Senate leader has told lobbyists the astoundingly rich executives of private equity firms don’t have to worry. Congress is not going to pass the legislation that would tax their hundreds of millions in income at the same rate as the rest of us.
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FrontRunneritis

Yes, FrontRunneritis is a terrible disease. Lyndon Johnson had it. Ed Muskie had it. Howard Dean had it. Candidates for all levels of office catch it. The question this year is, do Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton have it or are they in danger of catching it with the kinds of campaigns they are running?
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Fred is Fading

Scott Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll catalogues a candidacy in trouble as it chronicles Fred Thompson’s descent over the past two weeks in the polls as his candidacy increasingly comes to resemble the old U.S. Vanguard rocket, which would go three feet up in the air before crashing back down on the launching pad (circa 1958).

Rasmussen, who uses a tight screen to identify core Republican primary voters, has always had Thompson higher than any of the other polling organizations. These other firms, like Gallup, use a looser screen, which may let in more people who are not definitely going to vote in GOP primaries.
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