Presidential Campaign

Presidential Campaign

New Hampshire, Old Games

What's interesting about Hillary Clinton's "moment" Monday was the immediate debate it set off over whether the candidate's near-tears were real or just another calculated act. Stanislavski devotees might have been wondering whether there was a Method to her sadness.

That skepticism demonstrates
A) How much credibility her campaign has lost and

B) How far gone are the cynics who report and analyze these things.

Unconventional Wisdom

As a natural contrarian, here are some things that are being missed in the current media frenzy:

• Obama’s lead in New Hampshire is based on two things: an improbable bounce from an Iowa caucus that was overrun by young people and a huge number of independent voters in the Granite State. Hillary Clinton shouldn’t panic or prematurely quit the race. Obama does very poorly with older voters. Clinton should pound Obama on his Social Security stance and turn out the old fogies. History proves they turn out to vote more than the youngsters.

• Only one candidate has had a long-term plan to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and to ultimately win the nomination. That candidate is Rudy Giuliani. In the heat of these two early battles, it may have seemed like a risky strategy, but after Romney and McCain beat each other up in New Hampshire, look for Rudy to pick up the pieces.

McCain vs. Obama

Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) will be well on his way to winning the Democratic nomination with a victory in New Hampshire. As the saying goes, “Iowa sends a message. New Hampshire picks presidents.” Since the advent of the Iowa caucuses in 1972, the only two non-incumbents to win both Iowa and New Hampshire (Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in ’04) both went on to easy nomination victories. An Obama win makes him the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

The Obama Record on ‘Change’ vs. Non-Change

Mr. Davis is a supporter and fund-raiser for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) — Ed.

The core of Sen. Barack Obama's (D-Ill.) message in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries is that he stands for change from "politics as usual."

Here are six facts that most of the media have only barely reported — and that, indisputably, most Iowa and New Hampshire voters were and are unaware of:

Conventional Wisdom Takes a Beating

The biggest casualty from the Iowa caucuses is the conventional wisdom.

The conventional wisdom was that Hillary Clinton would be the next president.

Now, the conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton will drop out in the next 48 hours.

Last summer, the conventional wisdom was that John McCain would drop out of the race.

Now, the conventional wisdom is that he will be the nominee.

The conventional wisdom was that Rudy Giuliani had no chance that to get nomination.

Then, the conventional wisdom was that Rudy Giuliani had no chance to not get the nomination.

Then, the conventional wisdom reverted back to the previous point.

Trail of Tension

On Friday a longtime adviser to the Clintons, Paul Begala, was quoted as saying that Hillary should acknowledge herself as the underdog, that America loves underdogs, and move on. We all know she didn't take his advice, but is now engaged in a frantic push to change her fate in New Hampshire by trying to stop Barack Obama from winning there tomorrow. Her tactic has been "contrasts," and according to press accounts she has dropped advice from advisers, reversing the role as she takes control of strategy and they stand by listening.

Primary Season Opens Door Towards Civility in Politics

As CEO and founder of the Institute for Education (IFE), my mission isn’t easy — restoring civility and finding common ground in politics. Despite these challenges, I have the privilege of working with leaders of all political stripes.

During the upcoming primaries, I am supporting John McCain and Hillary Clinton, whose personalities help them stand out among a talented field. They are exceptional, thoughtful leaders with personal traits and histories that I admire. John McCain’s integrity and service to this country is unrivaled. Hillary Clinton has the commitment and intellect required of America's leaders.

John McCain’s 100-Year War in Iraq

If Hillary Clinton’s Beatles song is “Yesterday,” Mitt Romney's song is “The Nowhere Man,” and John McCain's is “Happiness is a Warm Gun”!

For New Hampshire Republicans I repeat my pre-Iowa prediction that McCain wins the primary and add that Mitt Romney will withdraw from the campaign after New Hampshire but before Super Tuesday.

Mitt is awful. Mitt is one of the worst candidates in memory, the true change candidate, who changes his positions like leaves change with the seasons, a man with vast money and no convictions. And it shows.

Loose Change

“‘Cheer up,’ they said. ‘Things could be worse.’ So I did. And sure enough, they were.”

Isn’t it ironic that the “change” everyone demands would really reverse earlier changes?

Each and every candidate is jumping on the “change” bandwagon. Each argues that he or she has the unique ability to end the self-interested deadlock in Washington and force the compromises necessary to get things done.

New Hampshire Predictions

The Democratic race has very little issue differential among the three major candidates. All are reliable liberals. The differences go to style — Edwards the angry (really angry) populist, Clinton the establishment candidate with experience, and Obama the candidate calling not just for “change” but for a “new kind of politics.” It will be interesting to learn what he means by that, but for right now, he has the momentum of Iowa and an enormous following among young voters and independents, enough to make “regular Democrats” in New Hampshire grumble that “outsiders” are taking over their party. It’s almost a spiritual attraction for Obama’s supporters and there is little the vaunted Clinton machine can do to stop him.