Presidential Campaign

Presidential Campaign

End New Hampshire, Start New Ballgame

Mark Twain would say reports of Hillary's political death were greatly exaggerated." Today, Mark Penn can say "I told you so."

The Clinton campaign's chief strategist has been getting pummeled as we piled on his candidate. "We" includes "me" here. Our judgment has been clouded by bloodthirsty lust for a story about "How the Mighty Have Fallen."

The real story contains the kind of nuance we are incapable of understanding. It really turns out to be "How the Mighty Have Stumbled," and in the the case of Hillary Clinton, we have clearly witnessed a candidate who seems to have recovered her balance.

Notable and Quotable

We must begin today with a quote from Mitt Romney — boy will I miss this guy when he is gone — about his winning strategy. Yes, he acknowledged to a reporter, he does have a vacation home in New Hampshire, that neighboring state he was supposed to win. “It is a second home. Along with Utah, I have a second home there as well and you know there are lots of ways to continue winning across this country,” he said. Uh, OK, Mitt. Whatever.

Then there is Bill Clinton with the nerve to call the Barack Obama surge “the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen.” Uh, Bill, insulting the voters is almost always a mistake. And when you ran against an incumbent president who happened to have commanded a successful war in Iraq, been a fixture in government for decades, and served as Ronald Reagan’s vice president, you wanted us to not “stop thinking about tomorrow.” You didn’t take kindly to that talk then, so try to control yourself.

Will somebody get these people some sleep?

And Now, the Dust Bowl

Will four weeks provide enough time for Hillary Clinton to "retool" after losses in Iowa and New Hampshire? Will Clinton alumni like James Carville and Paul Begala save her campaign? Will she be strapped for cash, as is rumored? Will Obama soon poll as well as her in her now-adopted home state of New York? In New Jersey? In California?

Will a McCain victory in New Hampshire focus the country's attention on the strength and importance of independent and swing voters, about how they move the margins for candidates who attract them with their bipartisan, inclusive messages? Will this further hinder Clinton?

What Lanny Davis and Hillary Clinton Just Don't Get

Lanny, you come to this site to post oppo research propaganda attacking Barack Obama on Iraq, on behalf of a candidate who had supported this war in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006?

You are dishing the dirt on Iraq against Obama on behalf of a politician who supported this war when the killed in action total was 500, and then 1,000, and then 1,500, and then 2,000 and more?

You are pushing oppo propaganda against Obama on Iraq on behalf of a candidate who supported this war while the toll of gravely wounded rose to 500, and 1,000, and 5,000, and 10,000 and more?

New Hampshire, Old Games

What's interesting about Hillary Clinton's "moment" Monday was the immediate debate it set off over whether the candidate's near-tears were real or just another calculated act. Stanislavski devotees might have been wondering whether there was a Method to her sadness.

That skepticism demonstrates
A) How much credibility her campaign has lost and

B) How far gone are the cynics who report and analyze these things.

Unconventional Wisdom

As a natural contrarian, here are some things that are being missed in the current media frenzy:

• Obama’s lead in New Hampshire is based on two things: an improbable bounce from an Iowa caucus that was overrun by young people and a huge number of independent voters in the Granite State. Hillary Clinton shouldn’t panic or prematurely quit the race. Obama does very poorly with older voters. Clinton should pound Obama on his Social Security stance and turn out the old fogies. History proves they turn out to vote more than the youngsters.

• Only one candidate has had a long-term plan to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and to ultimately win the nomination. That candidate is Rudy Giuliani. In the heat of these two early battles, it may have seemed like a risky strategy, but after Romney and McCain beat each other up in New Hampshire, look for Rudy to pick up the pieces.

McCain vs. Obama

Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) will be well on his way to winning the Democratic nomination with a victory in New Hampshire. As the saying goes, “Iowa sends a message. New Hampshire picks presidents.” Since the advent of the Iowa caucuses in 1972, the only two non-incumbents to win both Iowa and New Hampshire (Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in ’04) both went on to easy nomination victories. An Obama win makes him the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

The Obama Record on ‘Change’ vs. Non-Change

Mr. Davis is a supporter and fund-raiser for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) — Ed.

The core of Sen. Barack Obama's (D-Ill.) message in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries is that he stands for change from "politics as usual."

Here are six facts that most of the media have only barely reported — and that, indisputably, most Iowa and New Hampshire voters were and are unaware of:

Conventional Wisdom Takes a Beating

The biggest casualty from the Iowa caucuses is the conventional wisdom.

The conventional wisdom was that Hillary Clinton would be the next president.

Now, the conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton will drop out in the next 48 hours.

Last summer, the conventional wisdom was that John McCain would drop out of the race.

Now, the conventional wisdom is that he will be the nominee.

The conventional wisdom was that Rudy Giuliani had no chance that to get nomination.

Then, the conventional wisdom was that Rudy Giuliani had no chance to not get the nomination.

Then, the conventional wisdom reverted back to the previous point.