Of that total, 21 billion gallons would have to come from advanced biofuels like cellulosic ethanol that promise greater emissions reductions but are currently not economically viable. Advanced biofuels must have an emission benefit of 50 percent compared to traditional gasoline.
Environmental groups also convinced congressional leaders to mandate that corn ethanol from plants built after the act’s passage lower carbon dioxide by 20 percent.
This year, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will develop the metric to determine whether the new fuels have the intended environmental benefit.
“The question on everyone’s mind is, How does EPA interpret that language?” said Erich Pica of the group Friends of the Earth, which lobbied for a series of environmental safeguards to the RFS last year.
“The fight is going to be on EPA’s methodology,” said one oil lobbyist.
Two studies released last week in Science magazine found that increasing production of biofuels now available may actually increase greenhouse gas emissions. The reason: Uncultivated forests and grasslands that trap and store carbon dioxide would likely be cut down and seeded to accommodate the growing needs of a world increasingly using sugarcane, corn and other crops as both food and fuel.
Environmental groups will lobby EPA to evaluate the full “life-cycle” of biofuels production, as called for in the legislation.
Advocates for renewable fuels, meanwhile, disputed the studies published in Science. They are likely to lobby the EPA for an accounting of indirect emissions created by ethanol production that is as narrow as possible.
“Assigning the blame for rainforest deforestation and grassland conversion to agriculture production solely to renewable fuels industry ignores key factors that play a greater role,” said Bob Dinneen, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, which lobbies for corn-based ethanol production.
Matt Hartwig, a spokesman at RFA, said the group expected the EPA to examine emissions in a “much more measured” way.
For the oil lobby, the EPA matrix represents another uncertainty as the industry tries to comply with the new mandate.
Drevna told the Senate panel last week that refiners may be punished for using an ethanol blend that is later found not to meet the EPA greenhouse standard.
“We don’t know how all this is going to interplay,” Drevna told The Hill. “Let’s take a deep breath.”
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