Just to be safe, I’m going to say right off the bat that Rudy Giuliani might be the smartest campaign strategist in many a year.

That way, if the improbable occurs and the former New York mayor wins the Republican presidential nomination, I can say I knew it all along.

But does anybody really believe that?

All candidates make bets — they bet that this issue or that will dominate an election, or that the public mood will go this way or that way.

But in 2008, Giuliani is making the biggest bet of all. He has basically skipped Republican contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina, preferring instead to bet that he will win the Florida primary on Jan. 29 and then go on to victory in the big-state Feb. 5 Super Duper Tuesday primaries.

Look at his schedule. In the days leading up to tomorrow’s South Carolina primary, where has Giuliani been?

In Florida, the whole time.

In the days leading up to last Tuesday’s Michigan primary, where was Giuliani?

In Florida, the whole time.

He did that even though, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, he was leading in Michigan as recently as early December.

By the same measure, he was at least tied for the lead in South Carolina as recently as November.

Yet he essentially pulled out of both states.

You can understand a candidate skipping, or downplaying, Iowa, or New Hampshire, or maybe even both.

But Michigan, too? And South Carolina?

By Saturday, when South Carolina votes, Republican candidates who have run in all those contests will have faced a pretty diverse group of voters.

Competing in those places doesn’t mean you have everything it takes to win a national race, but it’s a good start.

Giuliani, with his sit-tight strategy, performed miserably in the first three contests — sixth place in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire and sixth in Michigan.

He approached the race as if it were the NFL playoffs — and he got a bye in the first week. The second week, too. And the third week.

Perhaps he believed he could do that because he stood atop the national polls for so long.

But he must have known that when Iowa happened, when New Hampshire happened, when Michigan happened — when other candidates won those elections, then attention and momentum would shift to them. And more will go to the winner of South Carolina tomorrow night.

Giuliani, meanwhile, stays in Florida.

On Tuesday, for example, when voters were going to the polls in Michigan, he touched base in Lake Buena Vista, in New Smyrna Beach, Jacksonville and Yulee.

When the campaign shifted to South Carolina on Wednesday, Giuliani headed to Panama City and Pensacola.

For months, he was the leader in the polls in Florida. But now his lead there, like his lead in national surveys, has disappeared. At last count, the poll average had him a couple of points behind McCain. And falling.

Of all the Republican campaigns, Giuliani’s looks the most presidential. A Giuliani appearance has the security guys, the setup, the look of a presidential visit. And the candidate himself, almost always in a dark suit, looks very chief executive.

But he’s not president yet. And given his strategy — unless he wins the biggest campaign bet in a long, long time — he won’t be.

And if that happens, looking back on his decision to skip all those early races, he might ask himself: What was I thinking?

York is a White House correspondent for National Review. His column appears in The Hill each week.  E-mail: This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it