DENVER — Barack Obama’s speech Thursday night will determine whether the Democratic convention was a successful launch into the fall campaign or a high-profile display of intra-party bickering and meaningless theatrics that could drown out whatever message the candidate wants to convey to undecided voters.

For Obama  to right a convention ship that hit some big rocks this week, he faces several significant challenges, analysts warn, not least of which is the possibility that the voters Obama most covets — white, blue-collar voters — could be turned off by the glitz of a speech in front of 75,000 fans. Democratic strategists said Thursday that for Obama’s speech to be considered a success, he has to strike the right balance between the lofty, inspirational rhetoric for which he is known and a concrete connection with voters that lets them know Obama is not that different from them and shares their concerns.

Democratic strategists James Carville and Stan Greenberg said Obama, who has come to be seen as a “cool” or “suave” candidate, could go a long way in connecting with voters by showing some anger or disgust about the condition of the economy and the war in Iraq, but they warn that he must be sincere.

“That’s what they’ve got to see,” Greenberg said. “It’s an engagement. It’s a passion. I think one of the challenges is how he gets there authentically.”



Greenberg and Carville, two former aides to the Clintons, spoke to a group of reporters Wednesday at a lunch sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor. Both men, who gained prominence with the rise of Bill Clinton to the presidency, said they are wary of the venue Obama’s campaign chose for such a critical speech.

“I’m nervous about the stadium as a format,” said Greenberg, a prominent Democratic pollster. He said “the festive quality” of a stadium filled with more than 75,000 cheering people, perhaps doing “the wave,” could diminish the candidate’s ability to communicate to undecided voters that he understands that people are hurting economically.

Greenberg noted that such a view on TV sets across America could defeat Obama’s attempts to show empathy. “Out in the real world, you know, people are struggling,” he said.

Carville and Greenberg also noted that media reports and pictures that appeared Wednesday, describing a Greek architecture-inspired temple from which Obama will speak, could cancel out any effort to strike a chord with voters angry at Republicans but unsure whether Obama is a candidate of substance and not just, as Republicans have said, a celebrity short on experience and ability.