Democrats have fought and won in the Deep South this cycle by running conservative candidates, but if they are to beat Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), they’re going to have to do it the old-fashioned way.

Josh Segall is one of a number of Democrats trying to win seats as a part of the national party’s new game plan in the South. But comparisons to conservative Democrats running in two other Alabama districts, or to the two who recently won special elections, miss the mark.

The 29-year-old attorney has made his mark by raising big money in a previously off-the-radar district. While open-seat contests in the state’s 2nd and 5th districts have stolen most of the headlines, Segall has quietly begun making a name for himself in the 3rd.

But he demurs when asked to compare himself to 2nd district candidate and Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D) and special election-winning Reps. Travis Childers (D-Miss.) and Don Cazayoux (D-La.).

“I don’t want to make statements about them,” said Segall, who calls himself a moderate, rather than conservative, Democrat. “We get interest in part because I’m young.

“This is a fundamentally conservative district; it’s just not a Republican district.”

Indeed, the district appears more naturally amenable to takeover than do the other two Alabama seats, where Reps. Terry Everett (R) and Bud Cramer (D) are retiring.

Its Cook Partisan Voting Index (+4) is less than both Everett’s and Cramer’s, and it voted 58-41 for President Bush in 2004, while the others went 60 percent or more for Bush.

Democrats fell just 3,800 votes shy of winning an open-seat race against Rogers in 2002, which was a banner year for Republicans.

The eastern district is also one of the most heavily black districts currently held by a Republican, at 32 percent. Segall believes strong black turnout for the party’s presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), can be a big boon to his cause.

But even as he emphasizes how in-play the district is this year, Segall acknowledges that a traditional Republican-vs.-Democrat race isn’t good enough. And while he considers himself socially conservative, Segall is in favor of abortion rights.

He said he’s not criticizing the Republican Party, but merely focusing on how Rogers has voted against the district. He points specifically to Rogers’s votes for the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). At the same time, he’s unafraid of mentioning his time working for liberal icons Sens. Paul Wellstone (D-Minn.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.).

“People are rightly skeptical about the national Democratic Party,” Segall said. “But I have hope for our party.”

Segall met last week with Cramer in hopes of winning the support of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition. He said an endorsement would be huge for his candidacy, but he was skeptical that he would get one.

The Blue Dogs have already endorsed Bright and state Sen. Parker Griffith, the Democratic nominee in Cramer’s district.

Segall campaign manager Don Weigel said Cramer told them that there was an opportunity and that it wasn’t a “complete waste of time.”

Regardless of what the Blue Dogs do, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has taken some notice, naming Segall to a list of 20 “emerging races” in its latest batch of Red to Blue program beneficiaries.

Rogers has also taken notice, and he launched his first TV ad earlier this month in what looks to be his toughest challenge since winning his seat.

Rogers campaign manager Tripp Skipper said his candidate has proven his independence by voting for a minimum-wage hike. He criticized Segall for not calling for more drilling for oil or extending the Bush tax cuts.

 “Mike Rogers is confident that the folks from Tallapoosa County and Cherokee County, Ala., are going to pick conservative values-driven Mike Rogers” over Segall, Skipper said.

Democrats redrew the district and then attempted to win it in 2002, as incumbent Republican Bob Riley ran for governor. Rogers rode superior national party support to a 50-48 win over Democrat Joe Turnham.

The incumbent Republican has since taken 61 and 59 percent of the vote, and he wasn’t on anybody’s watch list until Segall began to outraise him earlier this year. Rogers still holds a sizable cash advantage, though, $1.1 million to $410,000.

The power of incumbency will be a force for Segall to reckon with, as well, and Segall acknowledges that Rogers has a nearly 30-point lead in the Democrat’s early polling.

David Lanoue, who heads the political science department at the University of Alabama, likened Segall to Turnham but said he’s got a tall uphill battle on his hands against a sitting member.

He said Segall would likely need national trends to spill over into the district, including increased black turnout and Bush fatigue.

“You’re dealing with a three-term incumbent, who I think has left his mark on the district fairly successfully,” Lanoue said.