Young people prefer Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), are generally more liberal than conservative, are open to a third party, and should continue to show up in higher numbers, according to an extensive survey by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics.

The youth vote remains a holy grail of political campaigns, however, and some experts are skeptical that current upward trends can continue.

The poll, released Wednesday, shows young people have generally been disengaged from politics but are open to getting involved. They are also more pessimistic than older voters about the two-party system: Thirty-seven percent say a third party is needed and only 31 percent believe the current two parties are adequate.

John Della Volpe, the institute’s polling director, pointed to recent increases in young-voter turnout and the survey’s finding that 41 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds “definitely” plan to vote in the early nominating contests.

Turnout among this group rose from 36 percent in the 2000 general election to 47 percent in the 2004 general, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE).

“It’s not going out on a limb to say that young people will be a major part of the 2008 election,” Della Volpe said.

But others say these polls are poor measures of young people’s actual level of interest.

Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report said the recent rise in the youth vote is nothing more than a blip on the screen.

“Sure, young people voted in higher numbers in 2004; so did left-handed people, albinos and battered-husband advocates,” Cook said. “People under 25 always vote in disproportionately low numbers, and I don’t think that will change.”

Whatever the youth turnout, questions remain about whether it can help tip a state like Iowa for Obama.

The state’s Jan. 3 caucus date falls right in the middle of most colleges’ winter break periods. Some schools are closing their dormitories during that time.

The poll shows Obama leading Clinton 44-23 on college campuses, while Clinton leads 38-31 among those who never attended college.

Former Iowa Rep. Jim Leach (R), who recently became the institute’s director, said he thinks the timing will have a negligible effect on the caucuses, which are dominated by older voters.

Leach added that while a reduction in overall youth turnout could hurt Obama, if the students go home to rural areas and vote, they could prop the Illinois senator up and put him over the 15 percent mark required to be eligible for a share of delegates in the caucuses.

The semesterly poll, which was conducted a month ago and surveyed more than 2,500 people, half of whom are college undergraduates, found that Obama held a 38-33 lead over Clinton overall, who has a double-digit lead in most national polls.

On the Republican side, the youth vote closely mirrors the larger national picture, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading at 26 percent and the rest of the field crowded below 20 percent.

Thirty percent remain undecided, and 36 percent are dissatisfied with the field.

While Della Volpe stressed the potential for youth activity in politics, the poll showed just 15 percent of young people have contributed financially to a political campaign; 21 percent have attended a rally or demonstration; and 12 percent have volunteered for a candidate or issue. Nearly two-thirds don’t consider themselves politically engaged.

He said, however, that the results show the potential is there. About half of respondents said they were likely to attend a rally if they were provided an opportunity, for example.

“There’s a significant segment of the electorate that will help and organize and do things if simply asked,” Della Volpe said.

Healthcare was the second most important issue for young people, behind the Iraq war, and 50 percent favored a government-run, taxpayer-paid health insurance program. Only a quarter wanted to keep the current system.

Iraq remained the clear top issue, with 37 percent ranking it No. 1. But as with other voting blocs, Iraq’s importance has dropped in recent months, nine points down from the last Harvard poll.