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More than 60 new members of Congress are set to be sworn in Tuesday, filling the House and Senate nearly one-eighth with freshman. And many of them will be watching their backs from Day One.
The Hill ranks the 10 most vulnerable incoming freshmen:
1. Rep.-elect Joseph Cao (R-La.)
When asked how Cao could win reelection, at least one Louisiana political expert recommended he become a Democrat as quickly as possible. Cao won an extremely low-turnout affair one month after Election Day against an indicted New Orleans incumbent — William Jefferson (D). While the achievement is still remarkable in one of the 30 most Democratic districts in the country, it is unlikely to be repeated.
Who might run: State Sen. Cheryl Gray (D), state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), former New Orleans City Councilman Troy Carter (D), New Orleans City Councilman James Carter, former television reporter Helena Moreno (D)
2. Rep.-elect Walt Minnick (D-Idaho)
Minnick won in large part thanks to outgoing Rep. Bill Sali’s (R) inability to play nice even with members of his own party. The incoming Democrat will attempt to hold down a district that voted 69 percent for President Bush in 2004, and he has shown the fundraising prowess to do so. Minnick would be well-served if Sali ran again, but, even in that case, the GOP primary would be no cinch for the one-term former representative.
Who might run: Sali, state Sen. John McGee (R), state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden (R)
3. Rep.-elect Tom Perriello (D-Va.)
No new congressman won by a closer margin in 2008, and Perriello needed a recount to solidify his 727-vote win over Rep. Virgil Goode (R). Despite the conservative lean of the district, Perriello benefited from a large turnout on the University of Virginia campus in Charlottesville. With President-elect Obama off the ballot in 2010, Perriello faces a difficult second act.
Who might run: Goode, former state Sen. Brandon Bell (R), state Sen. Frank Ruff (R), state Sen. Robert Hurt (R), state Del. Danny Marshall (R)
4. Rep.-elect Glenn Nye (D-Va.)
It was a good Election Day for Virginia Democrats, but their hold on Perriello’s and this seat appear to be tenuous. Nye also upended an incumbent, taking down Rep. Thelma Drake (R), but he also had an Election Day advantage: Nye was one of several Democrats who benefited from high African-American turnout. In his Virginia Beach district, blacks account for more than one in five residents.
Who might run: Drake, state Sen. Frank Wagner (R), state Sen. Ken Stolle (R)
5. Rep.-elect Bobby Bright (D-Ala.)
Similar to Nye, Bright benefited from black turnout in a 30-percent African-American district. The reason he is ranked below Nye is that he is a known quantity as the outgoing mayor of Montgomery, and incumbency is likely to help in an area in which he struggled in 2008 — fundraising. Still, his district is very conservative, giving President Bush a 2-to-1 victory in 2004.
Who might run: 2008 opponent Jay Love (R), Troy University Chancellor Jack Hawkins, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke
6. Rep.-elect Frank Kratovil (D-Md.)
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